Lorenzo Sonego vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Lorenzo Sonego
#87 · 31 yrs · R
36 meetings · sets 8–8
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#258 · 33 yrs · R
5wLorenzo Sonego and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 6 times since 2017; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Manerbio in 2017 on clay. On clay courts they are level 2–2. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Sonego has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sonego has taken 8 sets to Baena's 8. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Sonego won at ATP Masters 1000 Paris (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sonego | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Sonego | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 10/16 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 8/21 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 14/37 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 8/18 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 8/16 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 10/19 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sonego 1, Carballes Baena 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Sonego.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 27, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Feb 3, 2022
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 31, 2019
Kitzbuhel
C Clay · Round of 16
Feb 9, 2019
Buenos Aires
C Clay · Round of 16
Oct 20, 2018
Brest
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 19, 2017
Manerbio
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sonego | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Sonego | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 39% | 5/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–9 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -46.9% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | -6.09u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | — |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sonego has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | W 62 76 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aziz Dougaz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Kamil Majchrzak
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
James Duckworth
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–47 matches
| Metric | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 51% |
| Sets won | 46% | 51% |
| Games won | 49% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 2 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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