Lorenzo Sonego vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Lorenzo Sonego
#91 · 31 yrs · R
6 meetings · sets 8–8
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#209 · 33 yrs · R
5wLorenzo Sonego and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 6 times since 2017; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Manerbio in 2017 on clay. On clay courts they are level 2–2. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Sonego has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sonego has taken 8 sets to Baena's 8. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Sonego won at ATP Masters 1000 Paris (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sonego | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Sonego | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 9/16 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 6/20 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 13/36 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 39% | 7/18 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 8/18 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 12/17 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 9/17 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sonego 1, Carballes Baena 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Sonego.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 27, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Feb 3, 2022
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 31, 2019
Kitzbuhel
C Clay · Round of 16
Feb 9, 2019
Buenos Aires
C Clay · Round of 16
Oct 20, 2018
Brest
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 19, 2017
Manerbio
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sonego | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Sonego | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 5/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–8 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | -18.3% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.92u | -2.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sonego has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | W 62 76 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Juncheng Shang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Raphael Collignon
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Joel Schwaerzler
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–47 matches
| Metric | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 55% |
| Sets won | 46% | 54% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sonego | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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