Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Olbia Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 12 · 9:30 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 3.79 or longer, Lorenzo Carboni has won 2 of 11 (18%). That is level with the 20% the price implied.
At 1.25 or shorter, Mackenzie McDonald has won 40 of 52 (77%). The price implied 81%, so Mackenzie McDonald has fallen 4 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Lorenzo Carboni meets Mackenzie McDonald in the 1st Round of the Olbia Challenger on October 12, a hard court event pairing two players hunting for wins. Carboni, ranked 562, has lost his last two matches, while McDonald sits at 169 but arrives on a three-match losing streak. The two have never played.
Both men have struggled on hard courts recently. Carboni is 10-10 on the surface; McDonald stands at 8-12 over the same sample. McDonald defeated Roberto Carballes Baena, a player who also beat Carboni, suggesting different recent trajectories in comparable situations. Each player has taken only one win in his last five outings.
Carboni competes as an aggressive baseline player who must dictate points early and force errors from McDonald, a steady grinder built to absorb pace and construct points methodically. McDonald's game relies on consistency and court positioning, a style that can neutralize power hitters but demands sustained execution under pressure. The question becomes whether Carboni can maintain aggression long enough to break through McDonald's defense, or whether McDonald's steadiness can tire his opponent's attacking game.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carboni | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Carboni | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 24/34 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 12/32 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 22/66 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 17/33 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 48% | 12/25 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 8/16 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 31/42 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 24/42 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carboni
⚔️ The Gladiator
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
⚔️ The Gladiator vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 233 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Carboni and McDonald have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carboni | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Carboni | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 59% | 10/17 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carboni | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–9 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.74 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -29.8% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | -5.36u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carboni | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 1 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Carboni's 0%).
| Opponent | Carboni | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Carballes Baena | L 63 16 46 | W 64 64 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 46 67 | L 62 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Federico Iannaccone
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round
Oct 7
Sander Jong
M25 Zaragoza · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Javier Barranco Cosano
M25 Zaragoza · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jaume Casas Blasi
M25 Zaragoza · 1st Round
Sep 29
Daniel Michalski
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Gabriele Pennaforti
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round
Sep 21
Matteo Sciahbasi
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round
Sep 15
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–66 matches
| Metric | Carboni | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 41% |
| Sets won | 52% | 43% |
| Games won | 51% | 49% |