Liudmila Samsonova vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Liudmila Samsonova
#43 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 6–10
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wLiudmila Samsonova and Madison Keys have met 6 times since 2021; Madison Keys leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Betti Open - Berlin in 2021 on grass. On hard courts Keys leads 2–1. On clay courts Keys leads 2–0. Across all meetings Samsonova has taken 6 sets to Keys's 10. Their most recent meeting: Liudmila Samsonova won at Mubadala DC Open - Washington (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Samsonova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Liudmila Samsonova | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 14/24 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 21/44 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 46% | 11/24 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 42% | 5/12 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 64% | 18/28 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 46% | 13/28 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Samsonova 0, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Samsonova
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jul 28, 2026
Mubadala DC Open - Washington
H Hard · 1st Round
May 24, 2024
Internationaux de Strasbourg - Strasbourg
C Clay · Semifinals
Apr 27, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Sep 2, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 13, 2022
Adelaide International 2 - Adelaide
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 18, 2021
Betti Open - Berlin
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Samsonova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Liudmila Samsonova | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 53% | 8/15 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 40% | 6/15 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Samsonova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | +20.9% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | +3.35u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Samsonova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 7,530 mi · 12,118 km | — |
| Route | UKR → ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Samsonova's 40%).
| Opponent | Samsonova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | L 64 46 26 | W 64 75 |
| Peyton Stearns | L 67 26 | W 46 64 62 |
| Kayla Day | W 76 26 76 | W 67 64 63 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 46 62 75 | L 36 16 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 63 75 | W 61 63 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 60 64 | W 61 62 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 46 | L 36 63 06 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 67 16 | W 63 61 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 36 67 | L 67 67 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | L 63 57 26 | W 61 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Linda Fruhvirtova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Peyton Stearns
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Semifinals
Sep 19
Kayla Day
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Marta Kostyuk
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 17
Elsa Jacquemot
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 15
Maya Joint
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–50 matches
| Metric | Samsonova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 68% |
| Sets won | 50% | 65% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Samsonova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Samsonova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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