Leylah Fernandez vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#32 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
3 meetings · sets 2–4
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Leylah Fernandez and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2023; Tatjana Maria leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Tennis in the Land - Cleveland in 2023 on hard. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Fernandez has taken 2 sets to Maria's 4. Their most recent meeting: Leylah Fernandez won at Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Fernandez | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Leylah Fernandez | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 17/25 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 8/26 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/51 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 16/33 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 9/17 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 29% | 5/17 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 75% | 21/28 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 17/28 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Fernandez 1, Maria 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fernandez
💥 Big Hitter
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Leylah Fernandez and Tatjana Maria are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 22, 2025
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 9, 2025
LTA London Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Aug 24, 2023
Tennis in the Land - Cleveland
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fernandez | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Leylah Fernandez | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 55% | 6/11 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 27% | 3/11 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–6 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.10 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | -8.7% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | -0.87u | +2.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Maria has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Fernandez's 50%).
| Opponent | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 06 | L 26 57 |
| Dayana Yastremska | L 16 26 | W 61 62 |
| Renata Zarazua | W 62 62 | L 46 46 |
| Magda Linette | W 61 64 | W 60 63 |
| Iva Jovic | W 36 63 62 | L 16 26 |
| Janice Tjen | L 16 67 | W 63 62 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 60 57 63 | W 63 75 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 46 67 | W 64 62 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 76 46 67 | L 76 57 06 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Mirra Andreeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Renata Zarazua
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Magda Linette
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Xi Yao Wang
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · 2nd Round
Jun 23
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–60 matches
| Metric | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 50% |
| Sets won | 49% | 52% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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