Leylah Fernandez vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#25 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
Title3 meetings · sets 2–4
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleLeylah Fernandez and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2023; Tatjana Maria leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Tennis in the Land - Cleveland in 2023 on hard. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Fernandez has taken 2 sets to Maria's 4. Their most recent meeting: Leylah Fernandez won at Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Fernandez | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Leylah Fernandez | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 8/26 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 18/58 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 20/40 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 10/18 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 29% | 5/17 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 27/34 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 22/34 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Fernandez 1, Maria 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fernandez
🤖 Servebot
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 22, 2025
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 9, 2025
LTA London Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Aug 24, 2023
Tennis in the Land - Cleveland
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fernandez | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Leylah Fernandez | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 6/15 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.16 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | +32.2% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | +5.15u | -0.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 5 |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | — |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | UKR → TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Maria has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Fernandez's 60%).
| Opponent | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Kamilla Rakhimova | L 26 64 36 | W 64 63 |
| Talia Gibson | W 75 60 | W 60 63 |
| Mananchaya Sawangkaew | W 64 61 | W 62 61 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 06 | L 26 57 |
| Dayana Yastremska | L 16 26 | W 61 62 |
| Renata Zarazua | W 62 62 | L 46 46 |
| Magda Linette | W 61 64 | W 60 63 |
| Iva Jovic | W 36 63 62 | L 16 26 |
| Janice Tjen | L 16 67 | W 63 62 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 60 57 63 | W 63 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Kamilla Rakhimova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Talia Gibson
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Final
Sep 27
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Semifinals
Sep 26
Mirra Andreeva
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Alycia Parks
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Kyoka Okamura
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–60 matches
| Metric | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 53% |
| Sets won | 54% | 55% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fernandez | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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