Laura Siegemund vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇩🇪Laura Siegemund
#102 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
9w34 meetings · sets 4–5
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Laura Siegemund and Madison Keys have met 4 times since 2016; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Charleston in 2016 on clay. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Siegemund has taken 4 sets to Keys's 5. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Siegemund | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Laura Siegemund | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 5/10 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 6/15 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 44% | 11/25 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 3/6 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 10/19 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 60% | 6/10 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 5/10 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Siegemund 1, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Siegemund
🎯 Baseliner
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 54% vs 🎯 Baseliner across 330 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Madison Keys.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the baseliner's precise groundstrokes.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 30, 2025
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 4, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Jun 28, 2016
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 128
Apr 6, 2016
Charleston
C Clay · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Siegemund | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–3 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.55 | 1.43 |
| ROI % | -66.0% | -5.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.64u | -0.95u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Siegemund | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Siegemund's 20%).
| Opponent | Siegemund | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 63 67 67 | L 63 46 67 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 06 75 64 | L 63 46 46 |
| Amanda Anisimova | L 16 36 | W 36 62 63 |
| Karolina Pliskova | L 16 46 | W 63 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 26 36 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Sara Bejlek
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Amanda Anisimova
The HSBC Championships - London · 2nd Round
Jun 10
Francesca Jones
The HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 9
Naomi Osaka
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 26
Karolina Pliskova
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 3rd Round
May 10
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 2nd Round
May 8
Sara Bejlek
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 1st Round
May 6
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–47 matches
| Metric | Siegemund | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 40% | 68% |
| Sets won | 43% | 65% |
| Games won | 48% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Siegemund | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Siegemund | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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