Kayla Day vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Kayla Day
#117 · 26 yrs · Left-Handed
3 meetings · sets 3–5
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Kayla Day and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2016; Madison Keys leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2016 on hard. Across all meetings Day has taken 3 sets to Keys's 5. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Day | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kayla Day | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 34/46 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 20/66 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 28/49 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 54% | 7/13 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 65% | 11/17 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 41/46 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 34/46 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Day 0, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Day
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 30, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 1, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 31, 2016
US Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Day | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Kayla Day | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.98 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -25.0% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.75u | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 4 shared opponents, both Day and Keys posted a 75% win rate.
| Opponent | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Diane Parry | W 36 63 75 | W 64 63 |
| Katie Swan | W 67 62 62 | W 61 64 |
| Hanne Vandewinkel | W 76 62 | W 63 60 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 06 67 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Shuai Zhang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Coco Gauff
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Diane Parry
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Mai Hontama
Odlum Brown VanOpen - Vancouver · 1st Round
Jul 28
Madison Keys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Katarzyna Kawa
Wimbledon
Jun 25
Erika Andreeva
Wimbledon
Jun 24
Cadence Brace
Wimbledon
Jun 23
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–66 matches
| Metric | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 68% |
| Sets won | 66% | 65% |
| Games won | 56% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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