Kayla Day vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Kayla Day
#119 · 26 yrs · Left-Handed
Title3 meetings · sets 3–5
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5wKayla Day and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2016; Madison Keys leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2016 on hard. Across all meetings Day has taken 3 sets to Keys's 5. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Day | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kayla Day | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 78% | 39/50 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 8/23 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 19/73 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 34/58 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 8/13 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 11/21 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 44/48 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 39/48 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Day 0, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Day
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Kayla Day and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 30, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 1, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 31, 2016
US Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Day | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Kayla Day | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 69% | 9/13 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–7 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.92 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -12.2% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.20u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 8 | — |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | UKR → USA → TUR | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Day has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Keys's 40%).
| Opponent | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Liudmila Samsonova | L 67 62 67 | L 63 46 46 |
| Diane Parry | W 36 63 75 | L |
| Katie Swan | W 67 62 62 | W 61 64 |
| Hanne Vandewinkel | W 76 62 | W 63 60 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 06 67 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Amelie Van Impe
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Janae Preston
W50 Berkeley · Final
Sep 27
Ella Mcdonald
W50 Berkeley · Semifinals
Sep 26
Anna Sinclair Rogers
W50 Berkeley · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Evialina Laskevich
W50 Berkeley · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Arina Bulatova
W50 Berkeley · 1st Round
Sep 23
Liudmila Samsonova
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Elvina Kalieva
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–73 matches
| Metric | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 68% |
| Sets won | 65% | 65% |
| Games won | 56% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Day | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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