Katie Swan vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇬🇧Katie Swan
#191 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 1–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wKatie Swan and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2021; Madison Keys leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2021 on grass. On grass courts Keys leads 2–0. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Swan has taken 1 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Swan | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Katie Swan | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 79% | 27/34 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 62% | 8/13 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 15/47 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 66% | 21/32 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 85% | 11/13 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 30/35 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 27/35 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Swan 0, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Swan
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 2, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 4, 2023
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 28, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Swan | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Katie Swan | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 17% | 2/12 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–4 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.53 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -7.5% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.90u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | EGY → ECU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Swan's 0%).
| Opponent | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Kayla Day | L 76 26 26 | W 67 64 63 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | L | W 61 75 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | L 76 26 36 | W 60 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lisa Pigato
W75 Quinta do Lago · Semifinals
Oct 3
Alicia Dudeney
W75 Quinta do Lago · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Elena Malygina
W75 Quinta do Lago · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Reese Brantmeier
W75 Quinta do Lago · 1st Round
Sep 30
Mia Pohankova
Eupago Porto Open - Porto · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Valentina Steiner
Eupago Porto Open - Porto · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Sahaja Yamalapalli
Eupago Porto Open - Porto · 1st Round
Sep 22
Matilde Jorge
W50 Evora · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–50 matches
| Metric | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 71% | 68% |
| Sets won | 69% | 65% |
| Games won | 58% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
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