Katie Swan vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇬🇧Katie Swan
#206 · 27 yrs · Right-Handed
8w3 meetings · sets 1–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Katie Swan and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2021; Madison Keys leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2021 on grass. On grass courts Keys leads 2–0. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Swan has taken 1 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Swan | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Katie Swan | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 83% | 30/36 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 45% | 5/11 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 11/47 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 24/35 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 78% | 7/9 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 6/14 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 32/34 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Swan 0, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Swan
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 2, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 4, 2023
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 28, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Swan | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Katie Swan | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 4/5 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 2/5 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 40% | 2/5 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–2 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 3.54 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | +11.0% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.44u | -1.95u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Swan's 0%).
| Opponent | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Kayla Day | L 76 26 26 | W 67 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Madison Keys
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Irina Camelia Begu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Viktorija Golubic
Lexus Ilkley Open - Ilkley · 2nd Round
Jun 12
Tereza Martincova
Lexus Ilkley Open - Ilkley · 1st Round
Jun 10
Taylah Preston
Lexus Birmingham Open - Birmingham · 2nd Round
Jun 4
Kyoka Okamura
W75 Kurume · Final
May 17
Mei Yamaguchi
W75 Kurume · Semifinals
May 16
Sara Saito
W75 Kurume · Quarterfinals
May 15
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–48 matches
| Metric | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 68% |
| Sets won | 73% | 65% |
| Games won | 60% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Swan | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 2 |
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