Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Karen Khachanov and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 9 times since 2017; Karen Khachanov leads 6–3. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo in 2017 on clay. On hard courts Khachanov leads 4–1. On clay courts they are level 2–2. Khachanov has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Khachanov has taken 14 sets to Busta's 9. Their most recent meeting: Karen Khachanov won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Khachanov | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karen Khachanov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 8/16 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 9/19 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 21% | 6/28 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 5/7 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 26% | 5/19 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 12/17 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 47% | 8/17 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Khachanov 4, Carreno Busta 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Khachanov
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Karen Khachanov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Sep 4, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
May 11, 2022
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 12, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 30, 2021
Olympics - Tokyo
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 26, 2021
Tokyo Olympics
C Clay · Semifinals
Apr 14, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 24, 2020
Western & Southern Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 8, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 64
Apr 9, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Khachanov | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karen Khachanov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 5/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.94 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | +12.5% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | +1.62u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Khachanov's 50%).
| Opponent | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 63 | L 36 64 16 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 62 64 | W 63 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 36 46 | L 63 57 57 |
| Billy Harris | W 63 57 63 63 | W 75 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 57 64 64 | W 63 62 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 46 67 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 62 46 64 | W 46 76 62 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 36 67 | W 62 36 63 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 36 75 46 | L 46 46 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 64 67 36 | W 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Adrian Mannarino
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Arthur Fery
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Felix Auger-Aliassime
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alexander Blockx
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 10
Alexander Blockx
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–58 matches
| Metric | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 62% |
| Sets won | 54% | 58% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 3 | 3 |
| Other | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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