Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Karen Khachanov and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 9 times since 2017; Karen Khachanov leads 6–3. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo in 2017 on clay. On hard courts Khachanov leads 4–1. On clay courts they are level 2–2. Khachanov has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Khachanov has taken 14 sets to Busta's 9. Their most recent meeting: Karen Khachanov won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Khachanov | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karen Khachanov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 42% | 5/12 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 53% | 17/32 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 15% | 4/26 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 4/6 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 18% | 3/17 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 57% | 8/14 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 36% | 5/14 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Khachanov 4, Carreno Busta 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Khachanov
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Sep 4, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
May 11, 2022
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 12, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 30, 2021
Olympics - Tokyo
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 26, 2021
Tokyo Olympics
C Clay · Semifinals
Apr 14, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 24, 2020
Western & Southern Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 8, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 64
Apr 9, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Khachanov | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karen Khachanov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 43% | 3/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -59.0% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -4.13u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Khachanov's 38%).
| Opponent | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 36 46 | L 63 57 57 |
| Billy Harris | W 63 57 63 63 | W 75 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 57 64 64 | W 63 62 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 46 67 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 62 46 64 | W 46 76 62 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 36 67 | W 62 36 63 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 36 75 46 | L 46 46 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 64 67 36 | W 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Terence Atmane
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Bernard Tomic
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Flavio Cobolli
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Yannick Hanfmann
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Billy Harris
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Ethan Quinn
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · 1st Round
Jun 16
Jesper de Jong
French Open - Paris · 3rd Round
May 29
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–65 matches
| Metric | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 65% |
| Sets won | 49% | 60% |
| Games won | 51% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 3 | 1 |
| Other | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Khachanov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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