Kaia Kanepi vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇪Kaia Kanepi
Unranked · 41 yrs · Right-Handed
143w4 meetings · sets 3–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Kaia Kanepi and Madison Keys have met 4 times since 2015; Madison Keys leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Madrid in 2015 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts Keys leads 2–0. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Kanepi has taken 3 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at French Open - Paris (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kanepi | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kaia Kanepi | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 75% | 24/32 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 53% | 8/15 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 34% | 16/47 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 59% | 22/37 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 38% | 3/8 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 45% | 5/11 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 83% | 25/30 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 80% | 24/30 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kanepi 1, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kanepi
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 29, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 6, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 1, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 6, 2015
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 64
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kanepi | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.43 |
| ROI % | - | -5.3% |
| Units P/L | - | -0.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kanepi | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Chloe Paquet
Open Angers Arena Loire - Angers · 1st Round
Dec 5
Dalma Galfi
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole - Rouen · 1st Round
Oct 10
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Aug 31
Barbora Strycova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 29
Rebecca Peterson
Chicago Open - Chicago · 2nd Round
Aug 23
Margarita Betova
Chicago Open - Chicago · 1st Round
Aug 21
Alize Cornet
Livesport Prague Open - Prague · 2nd Round
Aug 3
Lucrezia Stefanini
Livesport Prague Open - Prague · 1st Round
Aug 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–47 matches
| Metric | Kanepi | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 68% |
| Sets won | - | 65% |
| Games won | - | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kanepi | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kanepi | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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