John Millman vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
John Millman and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 5 times since 2016; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Miami in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 3–1. Busta has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Millman has taken 2 sets to Busta's 9. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at ATP Cup (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Millman | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | John Millman | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 57% | 23/40 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 50% | 10/20 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 45% | 27/60 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 47% | 18/38 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 57% | 12/21 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 63% | 10/16 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 89% | 31/35 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 66% | 23/35 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Millman 1, Carreno Busta 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Millman
⚙️ Grinder
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 279 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Feb 3, 2021
ATP Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 28, 2020
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 128
Oct 8, 2019
Stockholm
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 23, 2016
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 24, 2016
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 128
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.29 |
| ROI % | - | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | - | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alex Molcan
Australian Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 11
Alessandro Giannessi
Australian Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jan 10
Stefano Travaglia
US Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Alejandro Tabilo
US Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 23
Titouan Droguet
Cherbourg · Round of 32
Feb 14
Daniil Medvedev
Australian Open · Round of 64
Jan 18
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Adelaide 2 · Round of 16
Jan 11
Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Adelaide 2 · Round of 32
Jan 10
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–65 matches
| Metric | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 65% |
| Sets won | - | 60% |
| Games won | - | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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