John Millman vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
John Millman and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 5 times since 2016; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Miami in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 3–1. Busta has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Millman has taken 2 sets to Busta's 9. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at ATP Cup - Melbourne (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Millman | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | John Millman | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 53% | 18/34 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 44% | 8/18 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 46% | 24/52 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 48% | 14/29 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 59% | 13/22 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 67% | 10/15 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 89% | 24/27 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 67% | 18/27 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Millman 1, Carreno Busta 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Millman
🎯 Baseliner
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 307 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Feb 2, 2021
ATP Cup - Melbourne
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 28, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 8, 2019
Stockholm
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 23, 2016
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 24, 2016
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 128
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.47 |
| ROI % | - | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | - | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | — | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alex Molcan
Australian Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 11
Alessandro Giannessi
Australian Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jan 10
Stefano Travaglia
US Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Alejandro Tabilo
US Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 23
Titouan Droguet
Cherbourg Challenger · 1st Round
Feb 14
Daniil Medvedev
Australian Open - Melbourne · 2nd Round
Jan 18
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Australian Open - Melbourne · 1st Round
Jan 16
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Adelaide International 2 - Adelaide · 2nd Round
Jan 11
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–58 matches
| Metric | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 62% |
| Sets won | - | 58% |
| Games won | - | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Cup | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Millman | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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