Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jakub Mensik and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2025; Jakub Mensik leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at ASB Classic - Auckland in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Mensik leads 3–0. Mensik has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Mensik has taken 7 sets to Busta's 3. Their most recent meeting: Jakub Mensik won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mensik | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jakub Mensik | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 16/27 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 47% | 20/43 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 15/36 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 43% | 3/7 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 48% | 11/23 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 25/28 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 16/28 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mensik 1, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mensik
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 20, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 20, 2025
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, ESP-CZE 2-1
H Hard · Rubber 1
Jan 7, 2025
ASB Classic - Auckland
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mensik | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jakub Mensik | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 79% | 11/14 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 29% | 4/14 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mensik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–6 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.73 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -13.1% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.84u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mensik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mensik has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Busta's 60%).
| Opponent | Mensik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 75 46 46 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 63 76 46 26 63 | L 67 16 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 75 26 76 | W 64 26 76 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 64 75 | W 63 62 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | L 67 64 57 36 | L 36 26 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 62 64 64 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 76 62 | W 64 76 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 63 76 | W 57 75 75 |
| Martin Damm | W 63 64 | W 63 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 26 64 26 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rinky Hijikata
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Mattia Bellucci
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 10
Terence Atmane
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Jacob Fearnley
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–65 matches
| Metric | Mensik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 65% |
| Sets won | 61% | 60% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mensik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mensik | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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