Ilya Ivashka vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Ilya Ivashka and Mackenzie McDonald have met 7 times since 2021; Ilya Ivashka leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at BMW Open - Munich in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Ivashka leads 3–0. On grass courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts McDonald leads 2–0. Across all meetings Ivashka has taken 8 sets to McDonald's 9. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ivashka | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ilya Ivashka | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 18/32 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 4/12 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 18/44 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 17/30 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 6/11 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 97% | 28/29 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 62% | 18/29 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ivashka 1, McDonald 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ivashka
👑 The Complete Package
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 255 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Ilya Ivashka.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jun 13, 2023
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 13, 2023
Geneva
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 7, 2022
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 1st Round
Apr 26, 2022
BMW Open - Munich
C Clay · 1st Round
Feb 2, 2022
Open Sud de France - Montpellier
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 5, 2021
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 28, 2021
BMW Open - Munich
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ivashka | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ilya Ivashka | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 81% | 13/16 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 8/16 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–4 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.49 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | +9.3% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.76u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 1 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Ivashka's 0%).
| Opponent | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodesch | L 46 62 67 | L 67 75 57 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L 16 75 67 | W 36 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Kaichi Uchida
Jinan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 12
Beibit Zhukayev
Jinan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · Final
Sep 13
Luca Castelnuovo
Shanghai Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Yu Hsiou Hsu
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Ilia Simakin
Zhangjiagang Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–51 matches
| Metric | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 71% | 41% |
| Sets won | 64% | 43% |
| Games won | 56% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 4 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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