Ilya Ivashka vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Ilya Ivashka and Mackenzie McDonald have met 7 times since 2021; Ilya Ivashka leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at BMW Open - Munich in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Ivashka leads 3–0. On grass courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts McDonald leads 2–0. Across all meetings Ivashka has taken 8 sets to McDonald's 9. Their most recent meeting: Ilya Ivashka won at Geneva (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ivashka | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ilya Ivashka | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 11/19 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 4/11 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 12/30 | 28% | 14/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 9/18 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 17/18 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 74% | 17/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ivashka 1, McDonald 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ivashka
🪃 Counterpuncher
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,208 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jun 13, 2023
Geneva
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 13, 2023
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 7, 2022
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 1st Round
Apr 26, 2022
BMW Open - Munich
C Clay · 1st Round
Feb 2, 2022
Open Sud de France - Montpellier
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 5, 2021
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 28, 2021
BMW Open - Munich
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ivashka | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ilya Ivashka | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 5/9 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–4 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.45 | 1.96 |
| ROI % | -30.6% | -24.7% |
| Units P/L | -2.75u | -2.72u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | POL | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Ivashka's 0%).
| Opponent | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodesch | L 46 62 67 | L 67 75 57 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L 16 75 67 | W 36 63 62 |
| Petr Bar Biryukov | L 67 64 46 | W 62 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Joel Schwaerzler
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 7
Ergi Kirkin
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Gonzalo Villanueva
Segovia Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Chris Rodesch
Pozoblanco Challenger · Final
Jul 19
Tiago Pereira
Pozoblanco Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 18
Dan Added
Pozoblanco Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Aziz Ouakaa
Pozoblanco Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Iliyan Radulov
Pozoblanco challenger
Jul 13
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 31–53 matches
| Metric | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 49% |
| Sets won | 58% | 48% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 3 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ivashka | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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