Hailey Baptiste vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Hailey Baptiste
#45 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed
20w34 meetings · sets 3–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wHailey Baptiste and Madison Keys have met 4 times since 2019; Madison Keys leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Washington in 2019 on hard. On clay courts Keys leads 2–0. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Baptiste has taken 3 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Baptiste | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hailey Baptiste | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 42% | 8/19 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 6/12 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 55% | 17/31 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 6/16 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 73% | 11/15 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 42% | 5/12 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 75% | 12/16 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 8/16 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Baptiste 1, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Baptiste
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jun 2, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 8, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 5, 2023
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 31, 2019
Washington
H Hard · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Baptiste | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.40 |
| ROI % | - | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | - | -2.48u |
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baptiste has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Keys's 60%).
| Opponent | Baptiste | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Xiyu Wang | L | W 76 64 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 75 | L 63 46 46 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 62 | W 75 64 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 26 62 76 | L 36 36 |
| Belinda Bencic | W 61 67 63 | W 46 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Xiyu Wang
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Barbora Krejcikova
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 24
Elina Svitolina
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 3rd Round
May 10
Simona Waltert
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 2nd Round
May 8
Mirra Andreeva
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · Semifinals
Apr 30
Aryna Sabalenka
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · Quarterfinals
Apr 28
Belinda Bencic
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 4th Round
Apr 27
Jasmine Paolini
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 3rd Round
Apr 25
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 31–50 matches
| Metric | Baptiste | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 68% |
| Sets won | 56% | 65% |
| Games won | 52% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Baptiste | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Baptiste | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
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