Grigor Dimitrov vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Grigor Dimitrov and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 7 times since 2015; Grigor Dimitrov leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Paris in 2015 on hard. On hard courts Dimitrov leads 4–0. On clay courts Busta leads 3–0. Dimitrov has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Dimitrov has taken 8 sets to Busta's 7. Their most recent meeting: Grigor Dimitrov won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Dimitrov | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Grigor Dimitrov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 8/11 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 6/16 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 9/27 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 37% | 7/19 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 4/7 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 29% | 4/14 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 10/14 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 8/14 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Dimitrov 4, Carreno Busta 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Dimitrov
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Grigor Dimitrov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jan 6, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 8, 2021
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Apr 20, 2018
Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Nov 6, 2017
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 2, 2017
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 32
May 2, 2016
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 64
Nov 3, 2015
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Dimitrov | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Grigor Dimitrov | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 5 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Dimitrov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.54 | 2.41 |
| ROI % | -56.8% | -16.8% |
| Units P/L | -4.54u | -2.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Dimitrov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | FRA | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (43% vs Dimitrov's 29%).
| Opponent | Dimitrov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L 46 46 | L |
| Sebastian Baez | L 61 36 46 | W 57 75 75 |
| Tomas Machac | L 46 46 36 | W 63 62 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 63 64 36 57 63 | L 36 46 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 76 46 75 63 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 36 36 | L 36 36 |
| Martin Damm | L 67 67 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Edas Butvilas
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Holger Rune
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Elmer Moller
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 1
Sep 18
Alexei Popyrin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Timofey Skatov
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Lorenzo Giustino
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Sebastian Baez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–58 matches
| Metric | Dimitrov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 42% | 62% |
| Sets won | 46% | 58% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Dimitrov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Dimitrov | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 3 |
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