Francesco Maestrelli vs Juan Pablo VarillasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Francesco Maestrelli
#168 · 23 yrs · R
1 meeting · sets 1–2
🇵🇪Juan Pablo Varillas
#232 · 30 yrs · R
4w3Francesco Maestrelli and Juan Pablo Varillas have met 1 time since 2026; Juan Pablo Varillas leads 1–0. Across all meetings Maestrelli has taken 1 sets to Varillas's 2. Their most recent meeting: Juan Pablo Varillas won at San Marino Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Maestrelli | Pablo Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Francesco Maestrelli | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 12/23 | 72% | 26/36 |
| Wins a set when losing | 34% | 10/29 | 30% | 8/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 21/52 | 29% | 18/63 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 37% | 10/27 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 43% | 10/23 | 91% | 10/11 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 13/26 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 20/24 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 12/24 | 68% | 26/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Maestrelli 0, Pablo Varillas 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Maestrelli
🤖 Servebot
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Francesco Maestrelli.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 30, 2026
San Marino Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Maestrelli | Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Francesco Maestrelli | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 15 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Maestrelli | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–6 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.14 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -59.4% | +49.5% |
| Units P/L | -4.16u | +3.47u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Maestrelli | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN | SMR |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Varillas has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Maestrelli's 50%).
| Opponent | Maestrelli | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Gonzalo Bueno | L 36 67 | L 06 57 |
| Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | W 76 16 63 | W 62 64 |
| Murkel Dellien | L 36 60 16 | W 60 75 |
| Daniel Dutra da Silva | W 63 46 63 | W 61 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexei Popyrin
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Juan Pablo Varillas
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Lukas Neumayer
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Ognjen Milic
Brasov Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 30
Max Basing
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Alexis Galarneau
Dublin Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 15
Arthur Gea
Ilkley Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 9
Kimmer Coppejans
Chisinau Challenger · 1st Round
May 26
Mili Poljicak
San Marino Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Timofey Skatov
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Francesco Maestrelli
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jacopo Vasami
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nicolas Mejia
Bogota Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Bogota Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Luis Carlos Alvarez
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Bruno Fernandez
Bogota Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–63 matches
| Metric | Maestrelli | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 57% |
| Sets won | 44% | 56% |
| Games won | 48% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Maestrelli | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Maestrelli | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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