Elina Svitolina vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Elina Svitolina
#9 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 6–7
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Elina Svitolina and Madison Keys have met 5 times since 2017; Madison Keys leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 3–2. Keys has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Svitolina has taken 6 sets to Keys's 7. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Svitolina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elina Svitolina | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 25/41 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 4/13 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 20/54 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 21/39 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 77% | 10/13 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 11/15 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 97% | 31/32 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Svitolina 1, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Svitolina
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 22, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 10, 2022
Adelaide International 2 - Adelaide
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 29, 2019
Us Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 17, 2019
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 31, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Svitolina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elina Svitolina | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 3 or more | 62% | 8/13 | 72% | 13/18 |
| 5 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 39% | 7/18 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 17% | 3/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.52 | 1.43 |
| ROI % | -18.9% | -5.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.46u | -0.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Svitolina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Keys's 50%).
| Opponent | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Tereza Valentova | W 36 76 60 | W 64 61 |
| Daria Snigur | L 57 26 | W 46 63 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 36 61 36 | L 16 26 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 62 64 | W 36 62 63 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 62 26 | L 36 16 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 67 76 64 | W 60 61 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 36 62 63 | W 61 62 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 36 63 62 | L 63 46 46 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 75 | L 46 67 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 26 46 | L 67 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tereza Valentova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Iga Swiatek
National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals
Aug 13
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Amanda Anisimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Anastasia Potapova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Aug 1
Polina Kudermetova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–54 matches
| Metric | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 76% | 68% |
| Sets won | 67% | 65% |
| Games won | 57% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 2 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
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