Elina Svitolina vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Elina Svitolina
#6 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 6–7
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wElina Svitolina and Madison Keys have met 5 times since 2017; Madison Keys leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 3–2. Keys has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Svitolina has taken 6 sets to Keys's 7. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Svitolina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elina Svitolina | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 28/45 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 4/14 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 21/59 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 25/46 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 9/12 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 65% | 11/17 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 35/35 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 28/35 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Svitolina 1, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Svitolina
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 22, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 10, 2022
Adelaide International 2 - Adelaide
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 29, 2019
Us Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 17, 2019
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 31, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Svitolina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elina Svitolina | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 60% | 9/15 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–4 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.43 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -6.7% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.00u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Svitolina's 60%).
| Opponent | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Qinwen Zheng | L 36 67 | L 61 67 57 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 16 64 62 | W 61 63 |
| Anna Bondar | W 36 61 76 | W 57 64 76 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 36 76 60 | W 64 61 |
| Daria Snigur | L 57 26 | W 46 63 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 36 61 36 | L 16 26 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 62 64 | W 36 62 63 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 62 26 | L 36 16 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 67 76 64 | W 60 61 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 36 62 63 | W 61 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Ann Li
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Maria Sakkari
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Katerina Siniakova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Anna Kalinskaya
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Maya Joint
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Solana Sierra
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Tereza Valentova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–59 matches
| Metric | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 76% | 68% |
| Sets won | 68% | 65% |
| Games won | 57% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 2 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Svitolina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
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