Daria Kasatkina vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 4–0
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Tatjana Maria have met 2 times since 2023; Daria Kasatkina leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2023 on hard. Kasatkina has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 4 sets to Maria's 0. Their most recent meeting: Daria Kasatkina won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 2, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 7,380 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
May 9, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 11, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | +2.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 7 shared opponents, both Kasatkina and Maria posted a 57% win rate.
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 62 67 36 | W 64 62 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 76 57 06 |
| Xinyu Wang | W 16 76 75 | W 61 67 64 |
| Caty Mcnally | L 26 36 | L 64 67 16 |
| Janice Tjen | W 67 61 64 | W 63 62 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 63 63 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 60 | L 57 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–60 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 50% |
| Sets won | 47% | 52% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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