Daria Kasatkina vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#82 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 4–0
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleDaria Kasatkina and Tatjana Maria have met 2 times since 2023; Daria Kasatkina leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2023 on hard. Kasatkina has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 4 sets to Maria's 0. Their most recent meeting: Daria Kasatkina won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 11/21 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 21/41 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 2, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,733 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tatjana Maria.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
May 9, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 11, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.20 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | -31.7% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.49u | -0.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | — |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kasatkina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Maria's 50%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 67 60 36 | L 76 26 36 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 76 57 06 |
| Xinyu Wang | W 16 76 75 | W 61 67 64 |
| Caty Mcnally | L 26 36 | L 64 67 16 |
| Janice Tjen | W 67 61 64 | W 63 62 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 62 | W 62 61 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | W 63 63 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 60 | L 57 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Viktorija Golubic
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–60 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 53% |
| Sets won | 51% | 55% |
| Games won | 51% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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