Danielle Collins vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Danielle Collins
Unranked · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
53w4 meetings · sets 2–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Danielle Collins and Madison Keys have met 4 times since 2018; Madison Keys leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Indian Wells in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 2–1. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Collins has taken 2 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Collins | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Danielle Collins | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 75% | 24/32 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 53% | 8/15 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 34% | 16/47 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 59% | 22/37 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 38% | 3/8 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 45% | 5/11 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 83% | 25/30 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 80% | 24/30 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Collins 1, Keys 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Collins
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Danielle Collins and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 18, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 25, 2024
Internationaux de Strasbourg - Strasbourg
C Clay · Final
Jan 10, 2020
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 7, 2018
Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 64
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Collins | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.44 |
| ROI % | - | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | - | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Collins | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jaqueline Cristian
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 26
Taylor Townsend
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 8
Coco Gauff
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Viktoriya Tomova
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal · 1st Round
Jul 27
Magda Linette
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 21
Iga Swiatek
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 5
Veronika Erjavec
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 3
Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jul 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–47 matches
| Metric | Collins | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 68% |
| Sets won | - | 65% |
| Games won | - | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Collins | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Collins | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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