Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo VillanuevaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 13 · 10:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.57 or shorter, Gonzalo Villanueva has won 26 of 39 (67%). That is level with the 66% the price implied.
At 2.25 or longer, Carlos Maria Zarate has won 6 of 13 (46%). The price implied 33%, so Carlos Maria Zarate has beaten it by 13 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Gonzalo Villanueva and Carlos Maria Zarate meet in the 1st Round of the Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 Challenger on October 13, both ranked outside the top 300. Neither player has faced the other before. Villanueva arrives off seven days without match play after a busy 14-day stretch, while Carlos Maria Zarate has not competed in 13 days.
Villanueva has won 2 of his last 5 matches; Zarate has won 6 of his last 10. Against shared opponents, splits have gone both ways: Zarate defeated Juan Estevez and Nicolas Oliveira where Villanueva lost to each, but Villanueva beat Valerio Aboian while Zarate fell to him. Both enter on two-match losing streaks.
On clay, both players show identical recent records of 13-7. Villanueva operates as a sustained pressure player who wears opponents down through pace and physicality. Zarate constructs points as a reactionary defender, capitalizing on mistakes and tempo changes. Villanueva must establish his baseline rhythm early; Zarate must disrupt that tempo through accurate positioning and counter-movement.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Maria Zarate | Villanueva | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Maria Zarate | Gonzalo Villanueva | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 38/55 | 76% | 42/55 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | 34% | 11/32 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 25/84 | 28% | 24/87 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 13/26 | 73% | 27/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 13/19 | 62% | 24/39 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 17/27 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 47/50 | 92% | 45/49 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 38/50 | 86% | 42/49 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Zarate
🪃 Counterpuncher
Villanueva
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 2,464 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Carlos Maria Zarate.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Zarate and Villanueva have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Zarate | Villanueva | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Maria Zarate | Gonzalo Villanueva | ||
| 1 or more | 91% | 21/23 | 86% | 19/22 |
| 3 or more | 39% | 9/23 | 46% | 10/22 |
| 5 or more | 9% | 2/23 | 14% | 3/22 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/22 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/22 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/22 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Zarate | Villanueva |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 14–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.65 | 1.79 |
| ROI % | -10.0% | -5.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.40u | -1.27u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Zarate | Villanueva |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 4 |
| Distance | 835 mi · 1,344 km | 835 mi · 1,344 km |
| Route | ARG → BRA | ARG → BRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Zarate and Villanueva posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Zarate | Villanueva |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Hardt | L 26 26 | L 57 63 57 |
| Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | L 26 16 | L 64 46 67 |
| Valentino Grippo | W 63 62 | W 62 61 |
| Nicolas Bruna | W 63 76 | W 64 63 |
| Bastian Malla | W 26 63 63 | W 46 61 75 |
| Leonel Cesar Castro | W 63 75 | W 75 60 |
| Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | L 67 63 67 | W 75 62 |
| Nicolas Oliveira | W 62 62 | L 62 16 46 |
| Gabriel Schenekenberg | W 67 60 64 | W 63 62 |
| Kaua Emanuel Pereira Dos Santos | W 63 60 | W 62 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Lorenzo Gagliardo
M15 Trelew · Final
Sep 5
Felix Corwin
M15 Trelew · Semifinals
Sep 4
Valentino Grippo
M15 Trelew · Quarterfinals
Sep 3
Giovanni Branchetti
M15 Trelew · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Nicolas Bruna
M15 Trelew · 1st Round
Sep 1
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
M15 Mar Del Plata · Final
Aug 30
Nick Hardt
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Guido Ivan Justo
Curitiba Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Mateus Alves
Curitiba Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Guido Ivan Justo
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
M15 Mar Del Plata · Semifinals
Aug 29
Santiago De La Fuente
M15 Mar Del Plata · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Vito Antonio Darderi
M15 Mar Del Plata · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 85–87 matches
| Metric | Zarate | Villanueva |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 66% | 63% |
| Sets won | 61% | 61% |
| Games won | 54% | 56% |