Bernard Tomic vs Dane SweenyPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Bernard Tomic and Dane Sweeny have met 2 times since 2023; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Palmas del Mar Challenger in 2023 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Tomic has taken 3 sets to Sweeny's 2. Their most recent meeting: Dane Sweeny won at Brisbane 3 Challenger (2025).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Jinan Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 12 · 10:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.84 or shorter, Dane Sweeny has won 23 of 47 (49%). The price implied 57%, so Dane Sweeny has fallen 8 points short of it.
At 1.84 or shorter, Bernard Tomic has won 46 of 71 (65%). The price implied 57%, so Bernard Tomic has beaten it by 8 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Dane Sweeny and Bernard Tomic meet in the 1st Round of the Jinan Challenger on October 12 on hard court. Sweeny, ranked 112th, took a loss six days ago and has played five matches in the past two weeks. Tomic sits at 185th and also comes in with a recent defeat, though he played four days ago.
The pair split their two previous meetings. On hard courts, Tomic has won 13 of 20 matches (65%), while Sweeny has gone 8-12 (40%). Tomic's recent form stands out sharply: he won 4 of 5 and 7 of 10 matches. Sweeny has won 3 of 5 and 5 of 10 in the same windows. Against common opponents including James McCabe and Mark Lajal, Tomic converted while Sweeny struggled.
Sweeny moves freely across the court and can attack from anywhere. Bernard Tomic operates primarily on his serve, which demands that Sweeny break rhythm on return and create offense from secondary shots. Hard courts reward both approaches; the question is whether Sweeny's all-court aggression can disrupt Tomic's serving patterns, or if Tomic's recent consistency holds.
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tomic | Sweeny | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Bernard Tomic | Dane Sweeny | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 19/33 | 63% | 26/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 24/59 | 39% | 27/69 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 55% | 22/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 12/23 | 65% | 17/26 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 12/28 | 58% | 18/31 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 23/28 | 80% | 32/40 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 19/28 | 65% | 26/40 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tomic 1, Sweeny 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tomic
🤖 Servebot
Sweeny
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🎾 All-Court across 703 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Bernard Tomic.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Nov 14, 2025
Brisbane 3 Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 15, 2023
Palmas del Mar Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tomic | Sweeny | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Bernard Tomic | Dane Sweeny | ||
| 1 or more | 96% | 23/24 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 79% | 19/24 | 39% | 5/13 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 17/24 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 8/24 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 15 or more | 4% | 1/24 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tomic | Sweeny |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 18–7 | 6–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.90 | 2.86 |
| ROI % | +27.2% | +54.2% |
| Units P/L | +6.80u | +8.13u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tomic | Sweeny |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 4 | 3 |
| Matches | 11 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,578 mi · 2,540 km | 927 mi · 1,492 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tomic has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Sweeny's 40%).
| Opponent | Tomic | Sweeny |
|---|---|---|
| Kimmer Coppejans | L 16 57 | L 36 26 |
| Yuta Shimizu | W 57 62 76 | L 57 57 |
| Rigele Te | W 67 64 75 | W 60 76 |
| Jake Delaney | W 63 62 | W 64 76 |
| Ilya Ivashka | L 46 64 26 | L 67 76 26 |
| Masamichi Imamura | W 64 36 64 | W 63 62 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 16 67 | W 76 64 30 |
| Christopher O'Connell | L 46 46 | L 76 26 57 |
| Mark Lajal | W 46 76 76 | L 57 36 |
| James McCabe | W 76 64 | L 76 16 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Matteo Arnaldi
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Timofey Skatov
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Terence Atmane
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Yuta Shimizu
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Fajing Sun
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Fajing Sun
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Rigele Te
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Pavel Kotov
Guangzhou Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Kimmer Coppejans
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Tristan Schoolkate
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Alex Bolt
Jingshan Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Petr Bar Biryukov
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Omar Jasika
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taro Daniel
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Luciano Darderi
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Lorenzo Musetti
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–76 matches
| Metric | Tomic | Sweeny |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 59% |
| Sets won | 54% | 56% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tomic | Sweeny |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tomic | Sweeny |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |