Ashleigh Barty vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Ashleigh Barty
Unranked · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
239w4 meetings · sets 6–2
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Ashleigh Barty and Madison Keys have met 4 times since 2017; Ashleigh Barty leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2017 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts Barty leads 2–0. Barty has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Barty has taken 6 sets to Keys's 2. Their most recent meeting: Ashleigh Barty won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Barty | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ashleigh Barty | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 75% | 24/32 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 53% | 8/15 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 34% | 16/47 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 59% | 22/37 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 38% | 3/8 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 45% | 5/11 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 83% | 25/30 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 80% | 24/30 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Barty 3, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Barty
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 27, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Semifinals
May 31, 2019
Roland Garros
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 9, 2019
Fed Cup WG R1: AUS vs USA
H Hard · Round Robin
May 30, 2017
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 128
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Barty | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.44 |
| ROI % | - | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | - | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Barty | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Danielle Collins
Australian Open - Melbourne · Final
Jan 29
Madison Keys
Australian Open - Melbourne · Semifinals
Jan 27
Jessica Pegula
Australian Open - Melbourne · Quarterfinals
Jan 25
Amanda Anisimova
Australian Open - Melbourne · 4th Round
Jan 23
Camila Giorgi
Australian Open - Melbourne · 3rd Round
Jan 21
Lucia Bronzetti
Australian Open - Melbourne · 2nd Round
Jan 19
Lesia Tsurenko
Australian Open - Melbourne · 1st Round
Jan 17
Elena Rybakina
Adelaide International 1 - Adelaide · Final
Jan 9
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–47 matches
| Metric | Barty | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 68% |
| Sets won | - | 65% |
| Games won | - | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Barty | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 1 |
| BJK Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Barty | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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