Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Andrea Pellegrino
#145 · 29 yrs · R
4 meetings · sets 4–5
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#258 · 33 yrs · R
5wAndrea Pellegrino and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2016; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Fano in 2016 on clay. On clay courts they are level 2–2. Across all meetings Pellegrino has taken 4 sets to Baena's 5. Their most recent meeting: Andrea Pellegrino won at Perugia Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pellegrino | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrea Pellegrino | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 15/29 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 54% | 13/24 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 27/53 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 11/27 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 73% | 16/22 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 71% | 10/14 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 19/24 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 15/24 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pellegrino 1, Carballes Baena 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pellegrino
🏹 Frontrunner
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,152 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jun 4, 2026
Perugia Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 5, 2018
Florence
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jul 9, 2017
San Benedetto
C Clay · Round of 32
Aug 10, 2016
Fano
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pellegrino | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrea Pellegrino | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 56% | 5/9 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 44% | 4/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pellegrino | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–7 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.16 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -34.0% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.74u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baena has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Pellegrino's 0%).
| Opponent | Pellegrino | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Colton Smith | L 64 36 46 | W 76 63 |
| Raul Brancaccio | L 63 46 36 | W 64 36 63 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | L 36 46 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Matej Dodig
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Valerio Aboian
Genoa Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Mika Petkovic
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Zizou Bergs
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Nishesh Basavareddy
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 18
Thiago Monteiro
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Carlo Alberto Caniato
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–55 matches
| Metric | Pellegrino | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 51% |
| Sets won | 53% | 51% |
| Games won | 50% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pellegrino | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pellegrino | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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