Anastasia Potapova vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Anastasia Potapova
#26 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 2–4
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wAnastasia Potapova and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2019; Madison Keys leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 2–1. Across all meetings Potapova has taken 2 sets to Keys's 4. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Potapova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Anastasia Potapova | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 17/30 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 6/18 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 19/48 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 11/29 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 12/18 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 7/14 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 17/23 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Potapova 1, Keys 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Potapova
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 8, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2021
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 16, 2019
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Potapova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Anastasia Potapova | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 3/10 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Potapova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–4 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.55 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | +19.6% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | +1.76u | -2.48u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Potapova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Potapova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Keys's 50%).
| Opponent | Potapova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Amanda Anisimova | W 62 75 | W 36 62 63 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 26 61 16 | L 36 16 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 64 62 | W 60 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 16 26 | L 36 63 06 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 62 | L 63 46 46 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | L 26 36 | W 60 61 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 67 26 | L 67 67 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 62 | W 64 75 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 16 64 63 | W 64 61 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | W 46 64 62 | L 36 61 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sinja Kraus
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Mirra Andreeva
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Amanda Anisimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Leolia Jeanjean
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Darja Semenistaja
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–50 matches
| Metric | Potapova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 68% |
| Sets won | 57% | 65% |
| Games won | 52% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Potapova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Potapova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
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