Head-to-Head

Anastasia Potapova vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇷🇺Anastasia Potapova

#25 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed

1–2

3 meetings · sets 2–4

🇺🇸Madison Keys

#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed

Anastasia Potapova and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2019; Madison Keys leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 2–1. Across all meetings Potapova has taken 2 sets to Keys's 4. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Potapova	Keys
Indicator	Anastasia Potapova		Madison Keys
Wins in straight sets	58%	15/26	75%	24/32
Wins a set when losing	27%	4/15	53%	8/15
Goes to a deciding set	37%	15/41	34%	16/47
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	41%	9/22	59%	22/37
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	63%	12/19	38%	3/8
Tiebreak sets won	46%	6/13	45%	5/11
Wins after taking set 1	89%	17/19	83%	25/30
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	79%	15/19	80%	24/30

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Potapova 1, Keys 2).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Potapova

👑 The Complete Package

Elite serve & returnHigh BP conversionAll-surface dominanceClutch performer

Keys

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

3 career meetings, newest first

Mar 8, 2025

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

H Hard · 2nd Round

Keys

Mar 9, 2021

Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai

H Hard · 2nd Round

Potapova

Jan 16, 2019

Australian Open

H Hard · Round of 64

Keys

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Potapova	Keys
Outcome	Anastasia Potapova		Madison Keys
1 or more	75%	6/8	100%	19/19
3 or more	13%	1/8	68%	13/19
5 or more	0%	0/8	37%	7/19
10 or more	0%	0/8	16%	3/19
15 or more	0%	0/8	0%	0/19
20 or more	0%	0/8	0%	0/19

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Potapova	Keys
W-L	3–5	13–6
Avg odds	1.73	1.44
ROI %	-47.9%	-10.3%
Units P/L	-3.83u	-1.95u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Potapova	Keys
Countries	3	2
Events	3	2
Matches	4	6
Distance	761 mi · 1,225 km	411 mi · 662 km
Route	AUT → CAN → POL	CAN → POL

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Across 10 shared opponents, both Potapova and Keys posted a 50% win rate.

Opponent	Potapova	Keys
Katerina Siniakova	W 63 64	W 61 63
Marta Kostyuk	L 26 61 16	L 36 16
Elena Gabriela Ruse	W 64 62	W 60 63
Diana Shnaider	L 16 26	L 36 63 06
Liudmila Samsonova	W 63 62	L 63 46 46
Linda Noskova	L 26 46	L 46 67
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	L 26 36	W 60 61
Jessica Pegula	L 67 26	L 67 67
Karolina Muchova	W 63 62	W 64 75
Victoria Mboko	W 76 75	W 63 57 75

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Potapova

LLWLWLWL

Sloane Stephens

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

Aug 17

Elina Svitolina

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 7

Elena Gabriela Ruse

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

Aug 4

Diana Shnaider

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round

Jul 31

Venus Williams

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round

Jul 29

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Wimbledon - London · 1st Round

Jun 29

Suzan Lamens

Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round

6⁵7

Jun 10

Anna Kalinskaya

French Open - Paris · 4th Round

6⁷7

Jun 1

Keys

LWWWLWLL

Sara Bejlek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

6⁵7

Aug 21

Xiyu Wang

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

76³

Aug 20

Katerina Siniakova

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

Aug 18

Daria Snigur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

Aug 16

Marta Kostyuk

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 7

Antonia Ruzic

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

Aug 4

Liudmila Samsonova

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round

Jul 28

Linda Noskova

Wimbledon - London · 4th Round

6²7

Jul 6

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ PotapovaKeys ahead↓ Keys

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–47 matches

Metric	Potapova	Keys
Matches won	63%	68%
Sets won	58%	65%
Games won	53%	56%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

Stage	Potapova	Keys
Grand Slam	0	1
WTA 1000	1	1

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

Surface	Potapova	Keys
Hard	1	2

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Anastasia Potapova vs Madison Keys FAQ

Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 2–1 over 3 meetings.

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Style Matchup

Previous meetings

Prop Research

Player ROI

Travel

Common opponents

Recent Form

Rivalry momentum

Win rate

Record by tier

By surface

More Potapova rivalries

More Keys rivalries

Anastasia Potapova vs Madison Keys FAQ

Who leads the Anastasia Potapova vs Madison Keys head-to-head?

Who won the last Anastasia Potapova vs Madison Keys match?

How many times have Anastasia Potapova and Madison Keys played?

Who leads the Anastasia Potapova vs Madison Keys head-to-head on hard courts?

When did Anastasia Potapova and Madison Keys last play each other?