Alexandre Muller vs Tomas MachacPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexandre Muller and Tomas Machac have met 2 times since 2023; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Doha in 2023 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Muller has taken 3 sets to Machac's 3. Their most recent meeting: Tomas Machac won at Cassis Challenger (2023).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Jinan Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 12 · 10:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.36 or shorter, Tomas Machac has won 78 of 100 (78%). The price implied 75%, so Tomas Machac has beaten it by 3 points.
At 2.89 or longer, Alexandre Muller has won 19 of 68 (28%). That is level with the 26% the price implied.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Tomas Machac and Alexandre Muller meet in the 1st Round of the Jinan Challenger on October 12 on hard court. Machac arrives ranked 75th, while Muller sits at 133rd. The two have split their previous meetings evenly at 1-1.
Muller has found steadier form over a longer sample, winning 6 of his last 10 matches compared to Machac's 3 of 10. Both players enter on single-match losing streaks and face limited time to recover; Machac last played three days ago after a heavy schedule of five matches in two weeks, while Muller has had six days since his last outing. Against common opponents like Tommy Paul and Mattia Bellucci, Machac has performed better.
Machac plays aggressive tennis from the baseline, hunting opportunities to finish points. Muller constructs rallies patiently, grinding from the back court. On hard court over a recent sample, Machac holds a 50% win rate while Muller stands at 45%. The question is whether Muller can impose his rhythm and depth against Machac's power and ball-striking, or whether Machac can dictate before Muller settles into a sustainable baseline game.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Muller | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexandre Muller | Tomas Machac | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins a set when losing | 15% | 4/27 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 11/47 | 48% | 13/27 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 8/21 | 21% | 3/14 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 35% | 8/23 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 8/16 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 17/19 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 63% | 5/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Muller 0, Machac 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Muller
🎯 Baseliner
Machac
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 1,249 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 9, 2023
Cassis Challenger
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 19, 2023
Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Muller | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexandre Muller | Tomas Machac | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 72% | 13/18 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Muller | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–9 | 2–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.10 | 1.95 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -56.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.96u | -4.51u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Muller | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,033 mi · 1,662 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Machac has a higher win rate against shared opponents (29% vs Muller's 14%).
| Opponent | Muller | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Molcan | L 46 46 | L 36 26 |
| Tommy Paul | L 16 26 16 | W 26 63 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 36 64 36 46 | L 46 26 26 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 26 03 | W 64 76 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 46 16 | L 06 61 46 |
| Rafael Jodar | L | L 46 64 36 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | L 26 46 | L 75 46 26 75 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mattia Bellucci
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Rio Noguchi
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Mattia Bellucci
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Moise Kouame
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Petr Bar Biryukov
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Luka Pavlovic
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Zhizhen Zhang
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Arthur Gea
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yannick Hanfmann
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Toby Samuel
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Mees Rottgering
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–50 matches
| Metric | Muller | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 48% |
| Sets won | 41% | 48% |
| Games won | 47% | 47% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Muller | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Muller | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |