Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida AguilarPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar have met 1 time since 2026; Daniel Merida Aguilar leads 1–0. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 1 sets to Aguilar's 2. Their most recent meeting: Daniel Merida Aguilar won at National Bank Open - Montreal (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | Merida Aguilar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Daniel Merida Aguilar | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 33% | 1/3 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/54 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 60% | 3/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 59% | 13/22 | 0% | 0/1 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 28/28 | 90% | 9/10 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 70% | 7/10 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Michelsen 0, Merida Aguilar 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
Aguilar
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 1,159 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alex Michelsen.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 7, 2026
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | Aguilar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Daniel Merida Aguilar | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 86% | 12/14 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 36% | 5/14 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 10/18 | 14% | 2/14 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 10–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.46 | 2.09 |
| ROI % | -11.2% | +44.9% |
| Units P/L | -1.91u | +5.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 8 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Aguilar has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Michelsen's 25%).
| Opponent | Michelsen | Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz | L 36 46 | L 36 46 |
| Zizou Bergs | L 36 62 26 | W 63 62 |
| Learner Tien | L 46 63 16 | L 36 26 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 75 67 76 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Jesper de Jong
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Francisco Cerundolo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Taylor Fritz
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Adrian Mannarino
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mackenzie McDonald
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Zizou Bergs
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marin Cilic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 9
Alex Michelsen
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Ugo Humbert
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Liam Draxl
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 14–59 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 79% |
| Sets won | 56% | 70% |
| Games won | 51% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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