Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alejandro Tabilo and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 4 times since 2022; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Cup - Sydney in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 3–0. Across all meetings Tabilo has taken 4 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tabilo | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 49% | 18/37 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 46% | 13/28 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 32/65 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 37% | 15/41 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 14/23 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 10/25 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 75% | 27/36 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 18/36 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tabilo 1, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tabilo
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alejandro Tabilo.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Oct 10, 2026
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 6, 2026
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 17, 2025
Olbia Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 1, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tabilo | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 16/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 16/17 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 77% | 13/17 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 18% | 3/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–10 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.31 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -3.4% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.61u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Tabilo's 20%).
| Opponent | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 36 57 16 | L 36 64 16 |
| Denis Shapovalov | L 57 63 46 | W 63 76 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 26 | L 46 26 |
| Adrian Mannarino | L 46 46 | W 63 64 |
| Yi Zhou | W 46 64 63 | W 75 63 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 63 67 46 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L 26 61 16 | L |
| Rafael Jodar | L 26 16 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 64 46 | L 67 16 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 63 64 | W 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pablo Carreno Busta
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tommy Paul
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Alexei Popyrin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Yannick Hanfmann
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–73 matches
| Metric | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 62% |
| Sets won | 52% | 58% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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