Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alejandro Tabilo and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2022; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Cup - Sydney in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 2–0. Across all meetings Tabilo has taken 3 sets to Busta's 4. Their most recent meeting: Alejandro Tabilo won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tabilo | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 26/49 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 11/27 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 34/76 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 22/46 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 17/27 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 15/32 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 37/45 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 26/45 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tabilo 1, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tabilo
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 554 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 6, 2026
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 17, 2025
Olbia Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 1, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tabilo | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Tabilo | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–9 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -22.2% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tabilo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Busta's 40%).
| Opponent | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Jodar | L 26 16 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 64 46 | L 67 16 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 63 64 | W 64 76 |
| Valentin Royer | W 62 64 | L 61 57 26 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 76 46 64 | L 46 46 |
| Luca Van Assche | W 76 36 63 | L 36 64 26 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 64 62 | L 63 57 57 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 46 63 63 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 63 67 46 | W 63 76 63 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 67 36 | W 46 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Jan-Lennard Struff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Hubert Hurkacz
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 2
Ben Shelton
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Tallon Griekspoor
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Tiago Torres
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–81 matches
| Metric | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 65% |
| Sets won | 57% | 60% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tabilo | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.