Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander BublikPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Alexander Bublik have met 2 times since 2020; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha in 2020 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 2 sets to Bublik's 2. Their most recent meeting: Adrian Mannarino won at China Open - Beijing (2025).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- U.S. Open - New York
- Level
- Grand Slam
- Round
- 2nd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 2 · 7:05 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
Priced around 1.26 or shorter, Alexander Bublik has won 29 of 36 matches, 81% against a fair-price expectation of 80%.
Priced around 3.85 or longer, Adrian Mannarino has won 11 of 78 matches, 14% against a fair-price expectation of 20%.
Book prices only, with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Sample sizes below ten are not shown.
Alexander Bublik faces Adrian Mannarino in the second round of the U.S. Open on September 2, 2026, on hard court in New York. Bublik ranks 16th; Mannarino sits at 67th. The two players have split their two previous meetings.
Bublik has won four of his last five matches and eight of his last ten, arriving with momentum after two days' rest. Mannarino has struggled recently, winning only one of his last five and two of his last ten, though he played twice in the past fortnight. Their head-to-head record stands at 1-1.
On hard courts, Bublik has converted 70% of his matches in recent play, relying on a heavy serve and aggressive first-strike tennis. Mannarino wins only 45% on the surface and builds points methodically from the baseline. For Bublik, consistency off the ground will matter against a patient returner; for Mannarino, breaking serve and dictating rallies remain the path forward.
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Bublik | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Alexander Bublik | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 10/17 | 69% | 20/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 15/46 | 31% | 15/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 7/14 | 43% | 18/42 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 14/32 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 52% | 14/27 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 12/15 | 85% | 23/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 10/15 | 74% | 20/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 1, Bublik 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
🎯 Baseliner
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,823 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 26, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 6, 2020
Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Bublik | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Alexander Bublik | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 3 or more | 59% | 10/17 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 5 or more | 29% | 5/17 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 64% | 9/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 36% | 5/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 21% | 3/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–9 | 9–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.62 | 1.59 |
| ROI % | +10.7% | -3.4% |
| Units P/L | +1.81u | -0.47u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 4 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,488 mi · 2,395 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Bublik has a higher win rate against shared opponents (44% vs Mannarino's 22%).
| Opponent | Mannarino | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Learner Tien | W 75 64 | L 16 64 67 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 26 26 | L 46 16 16 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 76 36 63 | W 57 64 62 |
| Matteo Berrettini | L 64 57 57 | L 46 46 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 36 16 | L 76 67 36 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 36 67 | L 16 26 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | L 36 36 | W 76 63 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 67 67 | W 64 62 |
| Yibing Wu | L 64 67 57 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Thiago Agustin Tirante
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Lorenzo Sonego
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Denis Shapovalov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jacob Fearnley
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Learner Tien
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alexis Galarneau
Newport Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Remy Bertola
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
J.J. Wolf
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Quentin Halys
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Final
Jul 25
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Semifinals
Jul 24
Alex Molcan
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Quarterfinals
Jul 23
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Quentin Halys
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 17
Taylor Fritz
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Frances Tiafoe
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–58 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 37% | 62% |
| Sets won | 39% | 59% |
| Games won | 47% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |