ATP 500 · Round of 32 · Tokyo
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paul
🎯 Baseliner
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 54% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 2,419 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Tommy Paul here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paul | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–5 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.54 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | +4.0% | +49.9% |
| Units P/L | +0.81u | +9.48u |
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Paul
0
Arnaldi
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Arnaldi's 60%).
| Opponent | Paul | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 76 46 36 | L 63 62 57 46 36 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 63 76 | L 46 46 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 76 63 | L 36 36 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 75 46 76 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Raphael Collignon | W 62 36 76 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | W 63 62 64 | W 75 75 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 26 63 63 | W 46 76 64 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 75 | W 46 62 76 |
| Nuno Borges | W 76 63 57 57 75 | W 63 67 76 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 63 | L 36 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Paul | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 63.9% | 61.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.6% | 64.1% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51% | 49% |
| Aces / Match | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.9 | 3.2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 51.4% | 51.4% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 32.7% | 33.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 52.8% | 52.5% |
| BP Converted % | 47.7% | 45.6% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25 | 25 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 28.9 | 35 |
| Net Pts Won % | 71.6% | 60.6% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.8% | 49.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Francisco Cerundolo
HSBC Championships · Final
Jun 20
Ugo Humbert
HSBC Championships · Semifinals
Jun 18
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Zachary Svajda
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 15
Botic van de Zandschulp
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 12
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open · Round of 32
Jun 23
Toby Samuel
Lexus Eastbourne Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 21
Alastair Gray
Lexus Eastbourne Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 20
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Frances Tiafoe
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 31
Matchup overview
Tommy Paul and Matteo Arnaldi face off in the Round of 32 at Tokyo on Hard.
Tommy Paul leads 1-0 over 1 previous meeting.
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Francisco Cerundolo (Jun 20).
Matteo Arnaldi is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Giles Hussey (Jun 23).
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