ATP 250 · Final · HSBC Championships
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cerundolo
🪃 Counterpuncher
Paul
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,851 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Tommy Paul here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Grass, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cerundolo | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–6 | 13–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.54 | 1.60 |
| ROI % | -15.4% | +9.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.31u | +1.59u |
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
4
Cerundolo
2
Paul
Mar 23, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 32
May 31, 2024
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 32
Apr 28, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 32
Aug 9, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 32
Jun 19, 2023
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · Round of 32
Jun 21, 2022
Eastbourne
G Grass · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Cerundolo and Paul posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Cerundolo | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Jenson Brooksby | W 60 64 | W 46 64 76 |
| Zachary Svajda | L 36 46 63 64 36 | W 75 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 63 64 67 64 | W 76 63 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 67 62 | W 64 63 63 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 63 46 36 | W 26 63 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 75 | W 67 76 76 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 64 62 | L 57 46 |
| Tomas Machac | L 67 36 | L 62 36 36 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 76 76 | W 62 26 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Cerundolo | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.1% | 64.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 66% | 70.8% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 49% | 50.7% |
| Aces / Match | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54.3% | 48.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 33.5% | 33.2% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 48.7% | 53.2% |
| BP Converted % | 41.6% | 43.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 17.3 | 25.5 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 31.3 | 33.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 75.4% | 75.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.7% | 51.6% |
| Surface (Grass) | ||
| Grass Win % | 100% | 100% |
Last five matches per player
Brandon Nakashima
HSBC Championships · Semifinals
Jun 18
Jenson Brooksby
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 17
Arthur Fery
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Aleksandar Kovacevic
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 9
Zachary Svajda
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 30
Zachary Svajda
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 15
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Botic van de Zandschulp
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 12
Casper Ruud
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Lorenzo Sonego
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Matchup overview
Francisco Cerundolo and Tommy Paul face off in the Final at HSBC Championships on Grass.
Francisco Cerundolo leads 4-2 over 6 previous meetings.
Francisco Cerundolo is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Brandon Nakashima (Jun 18).
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Zachary Svajda (Jun 15).
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