ATP 500 · Round of 16 · Tokyo
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Machac
🤖 Servebot
Paul
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,955 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Tomas Machac plays Tommy Paul.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 13–4 |
| Avg odds | 3.56 | 1.60 |
| ROI % | +8.4% | +9.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.92u | +1.59u |
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
3
Machac
1
Paul
Jan 16, 2026
Adelaide International
H Hard · Semifinals
May 12, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 32
Oct 9, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
H Hard · Round of 16
Sep 28, 2024
Tokyo
H Hard · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (86% vs Machac's 43%).
| Opponent | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Zizou Bergs | W 64 64 63 | W 61 62 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 64 16 63 | W 62 75 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 06 61 46 | W 46 63 64 |
| Joao Fonseca | W 76 62 63 | L 26 36 |
| Adrian Mannarino | L 36 36 | W 62 26 64 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 46 36 36 | W 64 63 |
| Reilly Opelka | L 67 76 36 | W 64 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Machac | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.8% | 64.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 67% | 70.8% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 53.7% | 50.7% |
| Aces / Match | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 53.5% | 48.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 31.8% | 33.2% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 51.8% | 53.2% |
| BP Converted % | 44.6% | 43.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 29.8 | 25.5 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 31.8 | 33.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 73.5% | 75.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 50.1% | 51.6% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Zizou Bergs
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 24
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 7
Cameron Norrie
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 24
Francisco Comesana
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 128
Apr 23
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Zachary Svajda
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 15
Botic van de Zandschulp
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 12
Casper Ruud
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Lorenzo Sonego
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Matchup overview
Tomas Machac and Tommy Paul face off in the Round of 16 at Tokyo on Hard.
Tomas Machac leads 3-1 over 4 previous meetings.
Tomas Machac is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Alexander Zverev (May 27).
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Jun 15).
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