ATP 250 · Round of 32 · Winston-Salem
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Baez
🧱 The Wall
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 64% vs 🧱 The Wall across 160 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Pablo Carreno Busta here.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the the wall's elite returner. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Baez | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–7 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.30 | 2.03 |
| ROI % | -30.0% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | -4.50u | +0.83u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
1
Baez
3
Busta
May 14, 2026
Copa Faulconbridge
C Clay · Round of 16
Aug 19, 2025
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Round of 32
Oct 25, 2022
Basel
H Hard · Round of 32
Apr 11, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Round of 64
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Busta's 50%).
| Opponent | Baez | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 61 | W 63 76 63 |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | W 64 62 | W 64 63 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 76 61 | L 26 16 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 60 16 46 | W 63 62 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 36 67 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Ben Shelton | W 75 63 | L 46 26 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Baez | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 68.3% | 70.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 64.3% | 72% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 52.1% | 50.8% |
| Aces / Match | 2.1 | 3.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.5 | 1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 60.8% | 31.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.7% | 36.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 56.1% | 52.5% |
| BP Converted % | 54.3% | 46% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 15.6 | 25.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 23.5 | 26.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 58.5% | 79.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.9% | 53.2% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Sebastian Baez and Pablo Carreno Busta face off in the Round of 32 at Winston-Salem on Hard.
Sebastian Baez leads 1-3 over 4 previous meetings.
Sebastian Baez is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Alex Molcan (Jun 7).
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
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