Grand Slam · Round of 16 · US Open
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 302 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Denis Shapovalov here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.03 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | -38.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.83u | -3.43u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 8 career meetings
6
Busta
2
Shapovalov
Feb 24, 2026
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
H Hard · Round of 32
Nov 2, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Round of 32
Jan 9, 2022
ATP Cup
H Hard · Finals
Sep 9, 2020
US Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 12, 2019
Vienna
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 24, 2019
Chengdu
H Hard · Semifinals
May 5, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 64
Sep 4, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 8 shared opponents, both Busta and Shapovalov posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Busta | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Jodar | L 64 64 16 26 26 | W 61 62 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 63 76 63 | L 46 46 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 36 36 | W 57 64 63 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 46 76 62 | W 64 64 60 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 46 46 | W 64 36 62 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 63 62 | L 57 36 |
| Luca Nardi | W 67 64 76 | L 76 36 46 |
| Ben Shelton | L 46 26 46 | L 64 46 67 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Busta | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 70.2% | 60% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 72% | 68.2% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.8% | 48.8% |
| Aces / Match | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1 | 5.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 31.2% | 51.8% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.5% | 28.7% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 52.5% | 44.7% |
| BP Converted % | 46% | 40.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25.6 | 15.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 26.5 | 26.1 |
| Net Pts Won % | 79.4% | 52.8% |
| Total Pts Won % | 53.2% | 48.2% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Pablo Carreno Busta and Denis Shapovalov face off in the Round of 16 at US Open on Hard.
Pablo Carreno Busta leads 6-2 over 8 previous meetings.
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
Denis Shapovalov is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Alex de Minaur (Jun 17).
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