ATP 250 · Finals · Chengdu
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 334 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Alexander Bublik here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.03 | 1.95 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | -22.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.83u | -3.09u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 3 career meetings
3
Busta
0
Bublik
Sep 1, 2022
US Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Sep 29, 2019
Chengdu
H Hard · Finals
Oct 16, 2016
Moscow
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Bublik has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 70%).
| Opponent | Busta | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Mattia Bellucci | W 64 26 76 | L 67 16 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 76 75 36 64 | W 63 64 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 63 76 63 | W 62 75 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 57 75 75 | W 61 62 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 63 | W 64 63 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 26 16 | W 64 64 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 46 76 62 | W 75 64 75 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 36 61 46 | W 36 76 62 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 46 46 | L 36 67 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 63 62 | W 63 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Busta | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 70.2% | 65.8% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 72% | 69.9% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.8% | 45.3% |
| Aces / Match | 3.9 | 9.7 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1 | 2.4 |
| Break Points Saved % | 31.2% | 46.7% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.5% | 23.2% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 52.5% | 45.9% |
| BP Converted % | 46% | 38.4% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25.6 | 24.8 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 26.5 | 24.7 |
| Net Pts Won % | 79.4% | 61.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 53.2% | 46.5% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Pablo Carreno Busta and Alexander Bublik face off in the Finals at Chengdu on Hard.
Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3-0 over 3 previous meetings.
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
Alexander Bublik is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Taylor Fritz (Jun 13).
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