ATP Challenger Tour · Round of 16 · Malaga
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bellucci
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 302 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Mattia Bellucci here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bellucci | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–10 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.17 | 2.03 |
| ROI % | +4.5% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.95u | +0.83u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 2 career meetings
1
Bellucci
1
Busta
Jan 3, 2026
Brisbane International presented by ANZ
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 12, 2023
Malaga
H Hard · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Bellucci's 60%).
| Opponent | Bellucci | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 67 61 | L 36 36 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 64 64 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Quentin Halys | L 36 67 36 | L 64 57 36 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 76 61 75 | W 63 76 63 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 63 | W 64 63 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 46 36 | W 62 36 63 |
| Dusan Lajovic | W 76 64 | L 46 63 36 |
| Reda Bennani | W 63 36 64 | W 64 62 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 67 46 | W 63 62 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 16 46 | W 46 63 76 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Bellucci | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 66.3% | 70.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.9% | 72% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 54.6% | 50.8% |
| Aces / Match | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.7 | 1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 52.8% | 31.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 29.4% | 36.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 48% | 52.5% |
| BP Converted % | 36.4% | 46% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 21.5 | 25.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 28 | 26.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 76.8% | 79.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 50.6% | 53.2% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Raphael Collignon
Terra Wortmann Open · Round of 16
Jun 18
Mikhail Kukushkin
Terra Wortmann Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Taylor Fritz
BOSS OPEN · Quarterfinals
Jun 12
Yannick Hanfmann
BOSS OPEN · Round of 16
Jun 11
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
BOSS OPEN · Round of 32
Jun 10
Matchup overview
Mattia Bellucci and Pablo Carreno Busta face off in the Round of 16 at Malaga on Hard.
Mattia Bellucci leads 1-1 over 2 previous meetings.
Mattia Bellucci is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Raphael Collignon (Jun 18).
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
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