Grand Slam · Round of 16 · Australian Open
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cilic
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 334 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Marin Cilic here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cilic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–6 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.95 | 2.03 |
| ROI % | -27.5% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.75u | +0.83u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 5 career meetings
5
Cilic
0
Busta
Mar 28, 2025
Girona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Aug 13, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 14, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jan 15, 2018
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Oct 17, 2016
Basel
H Hard · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Cilic's 50%).
| Opponent | Cilic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Denis Shapovalov | W 67 64 75 | W 62 64 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 46 46 | W 62 36 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Cilic | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 60.9% | 70.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.5% | 72% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Aces / Match | 6 | 3.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.5 | 1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 56.6% | 31.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 28.5% | 36.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 46.6% | 52.5% |
| BP Converted % | 40% | 46% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 18 | 25.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 26.4 | 26.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 73.6% | 79.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.6% | 53.2% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta face off in the Round of 16 at Australian Open on Hard.
Marin Cilic leads 5-0 over 5 previous meetings.
Marin Cilic is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Ugo Humbert (Jun 16).
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
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