WTA 500 · Round of 16 · Berlin
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–1 | 8–1 |
| Avg odds | 2.63 | 1.82 |
| ROI % | +138.3% | +1.2% |
| Units P/L | +12.45u | +0.11u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 8 career meetings
2
Keys
6
Sabalenka
Jan 4, 2026
Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 5, 2025
Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 13, 2025
Australian Open
H Hard · Final
Sep 25, 2024
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 28, 2023
Us Open
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 3, 2023
Wimbledon
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jun 14, 2021
Berlin
G Grass · Round of 16
Aug 13, 2018
Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Keys's 40%).
| Opponent | Keys | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L | L |
| Victoria Mboko | W | W 76 64 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 46 64 62 | W 75 63 |
| Qinwen Zheng | L 64 26 46 | W 63 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 76 46 26 | W 64 63 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 26 63 63 | W 64 62 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 36 46 | W 64 26 63 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 46 63 75 | W 63 64 |
| Amanda Anisimova | L 64 36 26 | W 63 36 63 |
| Marketa Vondrousova | L 57 67 | W 75 61 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Keys | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.1% | 65.4% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 72.3% | 71.8% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 44.7% | 54.4% |
| Aces / Match | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54% | 54.5% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 38.1% | 34.2% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 55.9% | 57.5% |
| BP Converted % | 50.2% | 45.2% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 53.1% | 54.5% |
| Surface (Grass) | ||
| Grass Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Madison Keys and Aryna Sabalenka face off in the Round of 16 at Berlin on Grass.
Madison Keys leads 2-6 over 8 previous meetings.
Madison Keys is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 1).
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
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