Grand Slam · Semifinals · Us Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–1 | 8–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.82 | 2.63 |
| ROI % | +1.2% | +138.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.11u | +12.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 8 career meetings
6
Sabalenka
2
Keys
Jan 4, 2026
Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 5, 2025
Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 13, 2025
Australian Open
H Hard · Final
Sep 25, 2024
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 28, 2023
Us Open
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 3, 2023
Wimbledon
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jun 14, 2021
Berlin
G Grass · Round of 16
Aug 13, 2018
Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Keys's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L | L |
| Victoria Mboko | W 76 64 | W |
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | W 46 64 62 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | W 26 63 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 76 46 26 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 64 26 46 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 64 26 63 | L 36 46 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 64 | W 46 63 75 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | L 64 36 26 |
| Marketa Vondrousova | W 75 61 | L 57 67 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sabalenka | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.4% | 64.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.8% | 72.3% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 54.4% | 44.7% |
| Aces / Match | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54.5% | 54% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 34.2% | 38.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.5% | 55.9% |
| BP Converted % | 45.2% | 50.2% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54.5% | 53.1% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 100% | 50% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys face off in the Semifinals at Us Open on Hard.
Aryna Sabalenka leads 6-2 over 8 previous meetings.
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
Madison Keys is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 1).
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