ATP 250 · Semifinals · Antalya
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sonego
🎯 Baseliner
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 106 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Lorenzo Sonego here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Grass, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–8 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.81 | 2.03 |
| ROI % | -51.8% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | -5.18u | +0.83u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 3 career meetings
1
Sonego
2
Busta
Apr 22, 2022
Barcelona
C Clay · Round of 16
Aug 13, 2019
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Round of 16
Jun 24, 2019
Antalya
G Grass · Semifinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Sonego's 20%).
| Opponent | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Shelton | L 57 36 | L 46 26 46 |
| Mattia Bellucci | L 46 61 57 | W 64 26 76 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 67 46 | L 36 36 |
| Dusan Lajovic | L 36 67 | L 46 63 36 |
| Pedro Martinez | W 62 26 64 | W 64 46 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.4% | 70.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.8% | 72% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 53.6% | 50.8% |
| Aces / Match | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.6 | 1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 66.6% | 31.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 32.3% | 36.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 52.8% | 52.5% |
| BP Converted % | 41.3% | 46% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 19.8 | 25.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 21.4 | 26.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 69.4% | 79.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 52.1% | 53.2% |
| Surface (Grass) | ||
| Grass Win % | 33% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Ben Shelton
Terra Wortmann Open · Round of 32
Jun 17
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Terra Wortmann Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Filip Cristian Jianu
Terra Wortmann Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 1
Tommy Paul
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Matchup overview
Lorenzo Sonego and Pablo Carreno Busta face off in the Semifinals at Antalya on Grass.
Lorenzo Sonego leads 1-2 over 3 previous meetings.
Lorenzo Sonego is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Ben Shelton (Jun 17).
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
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