ATP Challenger Tour · Finals · Dallas
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nishikori
🪃 Counterpuncher
McDonald
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,244 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Mackenzie McDonald here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–4 | 5–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.79 | 2.33 |
| ROI % | -20.0% | -30.5% |
| Units P/L | -1.60u | -3.96u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
2
Nishikori
2
McDonald
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Nishikori's 50%).
| Opponent | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Colton Smith | W 62 63 | W 64 61 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L 63 46 26 | W 46 75 60 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Nishikori | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 59.5% | 62.8% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 67.6% | 56.4% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 54.3% | 45.6% |
| Aces / Match | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 59.4% | 52% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 28.3% | 25.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 50.7% | 44.5% |
| BP Converted % | 54.2% | 25.9% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 22.6 | 14.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 38.1 | 28.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 74.2% | 57.6% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.6% | 42.7% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 50% | 57% |
Last five matches per player
Jack Kennedy
Savannah Challenger · Round of 16
Apr 22
Colton Smith
Savannah Challenger · Round of 32
Apr 20
Yibing Wu
Elizabeth Moore Sarasota Open · Round of 16
Apr 9
Nicolas Kicker
Elizabeth Moore Sarasota Open · Round of 32
Apr 7
Clement Tabur
Challenger Cherbourg La Manche · Round of 32
Mar 9
Daniel Merida
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · 1st Round Qualifying
May 6
Lloyd Harris
Mutua Madrid Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 20
Chun-Hsin Tseng
Oeiras Open 3 · Round of 32
Apr 14
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Mexico City Open presentado por Banco BX+ · Round of 32
Apr 7
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship · Round of 16
Apr 1
Matchup overview
Kei Nishikori and Mackenzie McDonald face off in the Finals at Dallas on Hard.
Kei Nishikori leads 2-2 over 4 previous meetings.
Kei Nishikori is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Jack Kennedy (Apr 22).
Mackenzie McDonald is 0-5 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Daniel Merida (May 6).
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