ATP Challenger Tour · 1st Round Qualifying · Stanford, CA
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Smith
💥 Big Hitter
Vandecasteele
🛡️ The Spoiler
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 57% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 1,522 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Keegan Smith here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Smith | Vandecasteele |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–7 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.97 | 1.92 |
| ROI % | +15.8% | -20.5% |
| Units P/L | +2.84u | -3.08u |
Prior meetings and scores · 3 career meetings
2
Smith
1
Vandecasteele
Jan 12, 2026
M25 Winston-Salem NC
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 5, 2026
M25 Winston-Salem NC
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 12, 2023
Stanford, CA
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 8 shared opponents, both Smith and Vandecasteele posted a 63% win rate.
| Opponent | Smith | Vandecasteele |
|---|---|---|
| Joshua Sheehy | W 63 63 | W 63 64 |
| Daniel Milavsky | L 36 57 | W 63 63 |
| Zachary Svajda | L 67 46 | L 26 36 |
| Ryan Fishback | W 63 36 63 | W 64 64 |
| Braden Shick | W 60 76 | L 64 16 46 |
| Noah Schachter | W 64 63 | W 63 63 |
| Andrew Fenty | L 64 67 67 | W 63 62 |
| Aidan McHugh | W 76 76 | L 46 61 67 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Smith | Vandecasteele |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 71.8% | 61.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73.8% | 65.4% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 57% | 48.2% |
| Aces / Match | 6.2 | 2.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.8 | 3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 64.2% | 61% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 28% | 35.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 44.2% | 50.5% |
| BP Converted % | 36.4% | 43.2% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25.6 | 9.5 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 24.8 | 21.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 47.6% | 44.5% |
| Total Pts Won % | 50.8% | 50.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 33% |
Last five matches per player
Alex Bolt
Lexus Ilkley Open · Round of 32
Jun 10
Rio Noguchi
Lexus Ilkley Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 8
Finn Bass
Lexus Ilkley Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 8
Hamish Stewart
Dublin Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 1
Ben Jones
Lexus Birmingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
May 31
Cruz Hewitt
Dublin Challenger · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 15
Kaichi Uchida
Dublin Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Jurij Rodionov
Dublin Challenger · Round of 32
Jun 8
Charles Broom
Lexus Ilkley Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 7
Aidan Kim
Texas Spine and Joint Men's Championship · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 1
Matchup overview
Keegan Smith and Quinn Vandecasteele face off in the 1st Round Qualifying at Stanford, CA on Hard.
Keegan Smith leads 2-1 over 3 previous meetings.
Keegan Smith is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Alex Bolt (Jun 10).
Quinn Vandecasteele is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Cruz Hewitt (Jun 15).
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