WTA 1000 · Round of 32 · Indian Wells
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 800 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jessica Pegula here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–6 | 5–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.51 | 1.61 |
| ROI % | -5.5% | -28.0% |
| Units P/L | -0.99u | -2.80u |
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
4
Pegula
0
Paolini
Nov 1, 2025
Riyadh Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 7, 2023
Montreal
H Hard · Round of 16
Apr 4, 2022
Charleston
C Clay · Round of 32
Oct 6, 2021
Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Paolini's 50%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | W | L 36 16 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 57 62 63 | W 75 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | L | W 61 62 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | W 64 60 | L 26 26 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 62 | W 67 62 63 |
| Katie Boulter | W 64 64 | W 06 63 63 |
| Hailey Baptiste | W 64 46 76 | L 57 36 |
| Iva Jovic | W 64 57 63 | L 26 67 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 62 36 46 | L 36 26 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 62 62 | W 76 76 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Pegula | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 63.9% | 63.4% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69.6% | 62.9% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.3% | 42.7% |
| Aces / Match | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| Break Points Saved % | 65.2% | 52.8% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 40.5% | 37.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 53.4% | 48.5% |
| BP Converted % | 39.5% | 28.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 53.5% | 48.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Jessica Pegula and Jasmine Paolini face off in the Round of 32 at Indian Wells on Hard.
Jessica Pegula leads 4-0 over 4 previous meetings.
Jessica Pegula is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Linda Noskova (Jun 21).
Jasmine Paolini is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Sandy Sierra (May 27).
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