WTA 1000 · Round of 16 · Cincinnati
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 57% vs 💥 Big Hitter across 4,211 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jessica Pegula here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the big hitter's power groundstrokes. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–5 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -7.8% | -19.9% |
| Units P/L | -1.17u | -3.19u |
Prior meetings and scores · 12 career meetings
3
Pegula
9
Sabalenka
Nov 1, 2025
Riyadh Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 6, 2025
Wuhan
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 25, 2025
Us Open
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 18, 2025
Miami
H Hard · Final
Aug 26, 2024
Us Open
H Hard · Final
Aug 12, 2024
Cincinnati
H Hard · Final
Oct 30, 2023
Cancun Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 31, 2022
Fort Worth Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
May 9, 2022
Rome
C Clay · Round of 16
Apr 29, 2021
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Pegula and Sabalenka posted a 80% win rate.
| Opponent | Pegula | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | W 36 63 62 | L |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 62 | W 76 76 |
| Rebeka Masarova | W 60 60 | W 75 61 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 63 63 | W 62 63 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 16 46 | W 64 63 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 64 61 | W 61 64 |
| Hailey Baptiste | W 64 46 76 | L 62 26 67 |
| Iva Jovic | W 64 57 63 | W 63 60 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 62 62 | W 63 76 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 62 36 46 | W 64 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Pegula | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 63.9% | 65.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69.6% | 69.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.3% | 53.1% |
| Aces / Match | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.5 | 3.3 |
| Break Points Saved % | 65.2% | 58.1% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 40.5% | 36.8% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 53.4% | 57.8% |
| BP Converted % | 39.5% | 39.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 53.5% | 54.1% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka face off in the Round of 16 at Cincinnati on Hard.
Jessica Pegula leads 3-9 over 12 previous meetings.
Jessica Pegula is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Katerina Siniakova (Jun 17).
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
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