WTA 1000 · Round of 16 · Madrid
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 57% vs 💥 Big Hitter across 4,211 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jessica Pegula here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the big hitter's power groundstrokes. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–4 | 10–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.46 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -19.9% | -7.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.19u | -1.17u |
Prior meetings and scores · 12 career meetings
9
Sabalenka
3
Pegula
Nov 1, 2025
Riyadh Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 6, 2025
Wuhan
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 25, 2025
Us Open
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 18, 2025
Miami
H Hard · Final
Aug 26, 2024
Us Open
H Hard · Final
Aug 12, 2024
Cincinnati
H Hard · Final
Oct 30, 2023
Cancun Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 31, 2022
Fort Worth Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
May 9, 2022
Rome
C Clay · Round of 16
Apr 29, 2021
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Sabalenka and Pegula posted a 80% win rate.
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L | W 36 63 62 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | W 63 63 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | W 76 62 |
| Rebeka Masarova | W 75 61 | W 60 60 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | W 64 46 76 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | W 64 61 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 16 46 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | W 64 57 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 62 36 46 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | W 63 67 62 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sabalenka | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.9% | 63.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69.5% | 69.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 53.1% | 50.3% |
| Aces / Match | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 58.1% | 65.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.8% | 40.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.8% | 53.4% |
| BP Converted % | 39.8% | 39.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54.1% | 53.5% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 76% | 60% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula face off in the Round of 16 at Madrid on Clay.
Aryna Sabalenka leads 9-3 over 12 previous meetings.
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
Jessica Pegula is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Katerina Siniakova (Jun 17).
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