ATP 250 · Semifinals · Estoril
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 334 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Frances Tiafoe here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | 2.03 |
| ROI % | +38.6% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | +6.17u | +0.83u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 2 career meetings
2
Tiafoe
0
Busta
May 28, 2025
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 64
May 5, 2018
Estoril
C Clay · Semifinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Tiafoe's 60%).
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 67 | W 63 76 63 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 63 46 62 | W 64 63 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | L 67 16 | W 63 64 |
| Martin Damm | W 64 75 67 75 | W 63 63 |
| Marton Fucsovics | L 63 16 57 | W 46 76 62 |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | W 64 63 | W 64 63 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 76 46 76 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 63 64 | W 64 26 76 |
| Ben Shelton | L 67 46 | L 46 26 46 |
| Yoshihito Nishioka | W 63 76 63 | W 60 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Tiafoe | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.4% | 70.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.6% | 72% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 53.1% | 50.8% |
| Aces / Match | 7.4 | 3.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.2 | 1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 61.3% | 31.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 27.4% | 36.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 49.5% | 52.5% |
| BP Converted % | 38.2% | 46% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 27.6 | 25.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 32 | 26.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 71.5% | 79.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.6% | 53.2% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 64% | 67% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Frances Tiafoe and Pablo Carreno Busta face off in the Semifinals at Estoril on Clay.
Frances Tiafoe leads 2-0 over 2 previous meetings.
Frances Tiafoe is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Sho Shimabukuro (Jun 17).
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
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