ATP 500 · Round of 16 · BMW Open by Bitpanda
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
🪃 Counterpuncher
Marozsan
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,649 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Fabian Marozsan here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Marozsan |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–6 | 5–5 |
| Avg odds | 3.26 | 1.68 |
| ROI % | -51.0% | -18.8% |
| Units P/L | -4.08u | -1.88u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
1
Shapovalov
0
Marozsan
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Marozsan has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Shapovalov's 22%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Marozsan |
|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 62 36 64 | W 36 76 64 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 57 36 | W 62 76 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 36 26 | L 16 57 |
| Joao Fonseca | L 75 46 36 | L 46 63 26 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | L 46 62 06 | L 63 36 46 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 46 76 | W 63 61 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 46 | W 64 64 |
| Luca Nardi | L 76 36 46 | W 76 63 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 67 64 67 | L 26 64 36 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Shapovalov | Marozsan |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.1% | 66.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.7% | 70.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.2% | 55.5% |
| Aces / Match | 2.9 | 3.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.7 | 1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 45.9% | 52.1% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 31.8% | 31.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 49.3% | 44.5% |
| BP Converted % | 41.7% | 23.7% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 13.9 | 18.8 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 19.3 | 26 |
| Net Pts Won % | 45.9% | 63.5% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.4% | 50% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 29% | 45% |
Last five matches per player
Jaime Faria
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Mariano Navone
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 7
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 25
Alex Molcan
BMW Open by Bitpanda · Quarterfinals
Apr 17
Tallon Griekspoor
BMW Open by Bitpanda · Round of 32
Apr 14
Miomir Kecmanovic
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Vit Kopriva
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 6
Daniil Medvedev
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 64
Apr 24
Ethan Quinn
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 128
Apr 23
Denis Shapovalov
BMW Open by Bitpanda · Round of 16
Apr 10
Match summary
Denis Shapovalov and Fabian Marozsan meet in the Round of 16 at the BMW Open by Bitpanda on clay in Munich. Shapovalov, ranked 39th, brings an all-court game to the outdoor clay surface, while Marozsan, ranked 42nd, operates as a baseliner. The two have never faced each other before, so their head-to-head record remains blank.
Shapovalov has struggled on clay recently, posting a 40% win rate across his last eight matches on the surface. Marozsan has found more success on the same courts, winning 60% of his recent clay matches. Looking at shared opponents, the results are mixed but lean slightly toward Marozsan, who beat Daniel Altmaier and Luca Nardi while Shapovalov fell to both, though Shapovalov did defeat Tomas Machac and Roberto Bautista Agut.
Shapovalov arrives with a 40% win rate over his last five matches and a one-match winning streak, having played twice in the past two weeks. Marozsan has been busier on the calendar with six matches in fourteen days and a 60% win rate in his last five, though his longer ten-match stretch sits at 40%.
Shapovalov's aggressive serve-and-volley approach can trouble opponents on faster courts, but clay demands sustained baseline rallies. Marozsan's grinding baseline style suits the surface far better based on his recent performance, giving him a natural feel for the conditions on Thursday.
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