Grand Slam · Round of 32 · US Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
💥 Big Hitter
Baez
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 4,242 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Daniil Medvedev here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–6 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.07 | 2.33 |
| ROI % | -16.9% | -26.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.36u | -4.04u |
Prior meetings and scores · 2 career meetings
2
Medvedev
0
Baez
Mar 9, 2026
BNP Paribas Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 2, 2023
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Medvedev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Baez's 40%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Walton | L 26 61 16 61 46 | L 26 26 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 62 64 | L 57 36 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 36 67 | L 16 26 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 62 61 | W 63 76 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | W 63 62 | W 36 62 75 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | W 63 76 | L 16 36 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 62 63 | W 75 75 |
| Jack Draper | W 61 75 | L 26 26 12 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 62 | W 76 61 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 64 | L 36 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Medvedev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.4% | 68.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69.4% | 64.3% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.6% | 52.2% |
| Aces / Match | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Break Points Saved % | 60.9% | 56.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 32.1% | 37% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 54.6% | 57.9% |
| BP Converted % | 36.5% | 54% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 24.3 | 13.3 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 27.2 | 21.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 69% | 55.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.3% | 52.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Daniil Medvedev and Sebastian Baez face off in the Round of 32 at US Open on Hard.
Daniil Medvedev leads 2-0 over 2 previous meetings.
Daniil Medvedev is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Terence Atmane (Jun 17).
Sebastian Baez is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Alex Molcan (Jun 7).
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