Other · Semifinals · Intesa Sanpaolo Next Gen ATP Finals
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
💥 Big Hitter
Baez
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 4,242 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Carlos Alcaraz here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–1 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.20 | 2.33 |
| ROI % | -13.0% | -26.9% |
| Units P/L | -0.78u | -4.04u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
4
Alcaraz
0
Baez
Apr 7, 2026
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
C Clay · Round of 32
Sep 25, 2025
Tokyo
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 30, 2022
US Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Nov 12, 2021
Intesa Sanpaolo Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Semifinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (89% vs Baez's 11%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | L 16 26 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 67 | L 46 06 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 64 | L 36 46 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 62 64 | W 64 61 |
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | L 26 26 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 64 60 | L 46 36 |
| Valentin Royer | W 62 75 | L 26 36 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | L 75 36 57 |
| Reilly Opelka | W 64 75 64 | L 36 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Alcaraz | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.6% | 68.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.5% | 64.3% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 55.4% | 52.2% |
| Aces / Match | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Break Points Saved % | 43.3% | 56.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 42.1% | 37% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.7% | 57.9% |
| BP Converted % | 51.9% | 54% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 24 | 13.3 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 29.4 | 21.5 |
| Net Pts Won % | 65.5% | 55.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 56.3% | 52.3% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 8
Matchup overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez face off in the Semifinals at Intesa Sanpaolo Next Gen ATP Finals on Hard.
Carlos Alcaraz leads 4-0 over 4 previous meetings.
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
Sebastian Baez is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Alex Molcan (Jun 7).
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