ATP 500 · Finals · Barcelona
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Carlos Alcaraz and Pablo Carreno Busta are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit. Across 6,218 matches in our dataset, the historical split is about even.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.20 | 2.13 |
| ROI % | -13.0% | +21.0% |
| Units P/L | -0.78u | +1.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 2 career meetings
2
Alcaraz
0
Busta
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Busta's 67%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 62 64 | W 63 76 63 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 63 | W 57 75 75 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | W 62 63 | L 36 26 |
| Luca Nardi | W 61 64 | W 67 64 76 |
| Arthur Fils | W 62 61 | L 36 46 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 61 60 63 | W 64 26 76 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Alcaraz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.6% | 71.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.5% | 70.8% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 55.4% | 51.9% |
| Aces / Match | 2.8 | 3.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| Break Points Saved % | 43.3% | 30.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 42.1% | 36.2% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.7% | 52.7% |
| BP Converted % | 51.9% | 42.2% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 24 | 20.3 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 29.4 | 17 |
| Net Pts Won % | 65.5% | 86.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 56.3% | 52.9% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 83% | 70% |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 11
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 8
Matchup overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Pablo Carreno Busta face off in the Finals at Barcelona on Clay.
Carlos Alcaraz leads 2-0 over 2 previous meetings.
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
Pablo Carreno Busta is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Rafael Jodar (May 31).
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