Grand Slam · Round of 32 · US Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Paul
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 3,362 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Alexander Bublik here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bublik | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–7 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -22.8% | -2.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.96u | -0.39u |
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
2
Bublik
4
Paul
Aug 29, 2025
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Jul 6, 2024
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 32
Mar 1, 2021
Rotterdam
H Hard · Round of 16
Sep 3, 2020
Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 2, 2019
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 2, 2019
Playford
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Bublik's 50%).
| Opponent | Bublik | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Rinky Hijikata | L 76 67 36 | W 46 63 75 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 46 16 16 | W 26 63 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 76 76 64 | W 67 76 76 |
| Learner Tien | L 64 36 57 | W 46 64 63 |
| Aleksandar Vukic | W 67 64 64 | W 64 62 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 63 64 | L 57 46 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 36 06 | L 67 46 57 |
| Adrian Mannarino | L 36 26 | W 62 26 64 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 62 | W 64 63 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 63 75 | W 46 63 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Bublik | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.7% | 64.6% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.2% | 67.7% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 45.5% | 50% |
| Aces / Match | 7.6 | 3.7 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Break Points Saved % | 50.2% | 40.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 25.4% | 32.9% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 46.8% | 47.8% |
| BP Converted % | 32.4% | 44% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 23.3 | 23.7 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 23.8 | 32.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 66.7% | 75.1% |
| Total Pts Won % | 47.4% | 49.6% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 33% | 75% |
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Arthur Rinderknech
Gonet Geneva Open · Quarterfinals
May 21
Edas Butvilas
Gonet Geneva Open · Round of 16
May 20
Learner Tien
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 32
May 10
Sebastian Baez
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 8
Matchup overview
Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul face off in the Round of 32 at US Open on Hard.
Alexander Bublik leads 2-4 over 6 previous meetings.
Alexander Bublik is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Jan-Lennard Struff (May 26).
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Casper Ruud (May 29).
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