ATP 250 · Round of 16 · Sydney
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🎯 Baseliner
Opelka
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,120 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Alex de Minaur plays Reilly Opelka.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–8 | 0–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.45 | 2.56 |
| ROI % | -12.4% | -100.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | -1.00u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
5
Minaur
1
Opelka
Aug 10, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 64
Jun 13, 2022
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · Round of 32
Oct 23, 2019
Basel
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 7, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Jul 24, 2019
Atlanta
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 9, 2019
Sydney
H Hard · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Opelka's 20%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | L 57 36 | L 57 26 76 36 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 36 62 67 | L 76 67 67 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | L 46 46 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 57 36 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | L 46 46 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 36 67 75 64 46 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 | W 76 75 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | L 36 46 |
| Ben Shelton | L 36 46 | L 76 67 36 |
| Nuno Borges | W 75 62 | W 67 62 76 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Minaur | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.5% | 69.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 64.9% | 78.9% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.8% | 50.4% |
| Aces / Match | 2.5 | 10.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.3 | 5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 57.9% | 33.5% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 30% | 24% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 50% | 36.7% |
| BP Converted % | 44.7% | 10.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 19.3 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 32.4 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 76.9% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.3% | 49.9% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Federico Cina
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Ethan Quinn
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 8
Taylor Fritz
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 32
Mar 12
Jack Draper
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 64
Mar 8
Ben Shelton
BNP Paribas Open · Round of 64
Mar 6
Matchup overview
Alex de Minaur and Reilly Opelka face off in the Round of 16 at Sydney on Hard.
Alex de Minaur leads 5-1 over 6 previous meetings.
Alex de Minaur is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Brandon Nakashima (Jun 19).
Reilly Opelka is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Federico Cina (May 26).
Share this match
